MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6c2ef8e7681710e64ff8b83912a0871d03cab9b4a834e8883cbf8446bc6d040
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Over | 56c | 8,772$4,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,912.28 | 349 | 42.7%149 W · 200 L | -19.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 44c | 8,498$3,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,758 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 57c | 3,164$1,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,803.64 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Under | 43c | 3,000$1,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,710 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 51c | 2,991$1,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,514.53 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 57c | 2,200$1,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,254 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 1,978$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.25 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 44c | 933.89$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.88 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 56c | 678$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.64 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 52c | 595.53$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.64 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 53c | 509.91$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.76 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 43c | 485.76$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.14 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 43c | 459.89$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.59 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 48c | 426.11$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.2 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 55c | 406.47$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.85 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 49c | 386.04$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.34 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Under | 55c | 254.55$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.55 | 403 | 48.4%195 W · 208 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 61c | 236$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.42 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 54c | 231.03$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.17 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 45c | 215.52$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.41 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 59c | 212.63$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.7 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd304…3ed2backed Under | 50c | 200.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.17 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed Under | 42c | 139.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.79 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 45c | 128.49$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.67 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 41c | 120$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.8 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 59c | 110.43$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.54 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Under | 44c | 109.13$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ad…1014backed Over | 57c | 101.75$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Over | 57c | 98.57$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.04 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 60c | 95.22$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 46c | 81.37$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 54c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Over | 54c | 55.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 61c | 52.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f12…effbbacked Under | 35c | 52.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x887f…7289backed Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 48c | 51.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…2de1backed Under | 48c | 50.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d19…a694backed Under | 42c | 46.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Under | 45c | 44.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 72c | 42.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Under | 43c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 66c | 38.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 58c | 38.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 58c | 36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Under | 35c | 34.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 61c | 29.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 45c | 24.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 73c | 20.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 60c | 20.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Over | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…93afbacked Over | 56c | 18.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 420 | 41.9%176 W · 244 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d73…7914backed Under | 65c | 18.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 63c | 17.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh PiratesMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.