TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,156
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,375

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,156 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x032e…2a9ebacked No61c3,290$2,008 inWon+$1,281.442,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Yes39c2,760$1,076 inLost-$1,075.941,29250.2%648 W · 644 L+18.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xadf0…00fbbacked Yes38c891.35$338 inLost-$338.0549250.4%248 W · 244 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4946…4004backed No62c564.52$350 inWon+$214.5212852.3%67 W · 61 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes38c454.9$175 inLost-$174.991,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed No59c183.5$109 inWon+$74.338,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61d8…b596backed No62c162$100 inWon+$61.564438.6%17 W · 27 L-6.3wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-27%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Yes41c130$53 inLost-$52.91,05347.3%498 W · 555 L-14.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x59a8…eb4ebacked Yes40c124.56$50 inLost-$507444.6%33 W · 41 L-5.0wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-13.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd1f…9136backed No62c118.06$73 inWon+$45.4213850%69 W · 69 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd190…e445backed No62c98.65$61 inWon+$37.4916456.7%93 W · 71 L-0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd10f…bef4backed No62c96.19$60 inWon+$36.19944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes26c82.1$22 inLost-$21.741,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked No53c78.87$41 inWon+$37.45,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes38c62.98$24 inLost-$23.9316746.7%78 W · 89 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e4…c62abacked Yes40c59.78$24 inLost-$242944.8%13 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb6f…4e9bbacked Yes39c50.08$19 inLost-$19.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Yes46c50$23 inLost-$22.919353.9%104 W · 89 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60d2…4268backed Yes39c45$18 inLost-$17.7614753.1%78 W · 69 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e7a…2c0abacked No56c44.39$25 inWon+$19.3912257.4%70 W · 52 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89b7…fd93backed Yes40c42.82$17 inLost-$178241.5%34 W · 48 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0078…0690backed Yes42c41.4$17 inLost-$17.395038%19 W · 31 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3534…a1b3backed No62c32.26$20 inWon+$12.267051.4%36 W · 34 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2907…17a5backed No62c32.26$20 inWon+$12.26837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-37.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed No60c28$17 inWon+$11.21,85153.1%982 W · 869 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.