MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95b7a14fdc0fa245a4eb91a8a71dbc30cda406b5304e4323b8c0b52a1cf3c711
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,554
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,976
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,554 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Under | 70c | 3,500$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 30c | 3,492$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.62 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a0…6623backed Under | 62c | 820$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.6 | 398 | 46.5%185 W · 213 L | -16.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 61c | 508$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.12 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 29c | 404.61$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.33 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 39c | 222.96$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.95 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 216.34$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.21 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 44c | 213$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.65 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 38c | 194.23$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.84 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 40c | 163.9$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Over | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 60c | 113$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 24c | 95.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 70c | 53.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 30c | 51.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 60c | 49.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 61c | 43.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 73c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 64c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Under | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Over | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a4…d8b4backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 24.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 57c | 20.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh PiratesMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.