MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x000dc982496f1515b3e47118c61d3f0d1e8837df4353b5341652ff96bfe15b7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Pittsburgh Pirates, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,879
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Miami Marlins | 65c | 15,301$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,301.47 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 13,073$4,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,521.83 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 6,500$3,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 6,223$2,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,489.17 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 15c | 2,286$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.84 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 74c | 2,089$1,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.04 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 1,653$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.38 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 33c | 1,555$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.51 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 116 | 42.2%49 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 941.85$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.98 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 764.7$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.88 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 722.74$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.1 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Miami Marlins | 59c | 720.19$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.28 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 213.99$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.93 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ee…2e1dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 201.45$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.46 | 129 | 40.3%52 W · 77 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 232 | 55.2%128 W · 104 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Miami Marlins | 67c | 198$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.34 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 197.33$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.96 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 191.77$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.46 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 167$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.4 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x886f…aa8fbacked Miami Marlins | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 141.17$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.21 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 121.08$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 119.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Miami Marlins | 63c | 107.85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.36 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Miami Marlins | 59c | 104.37$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.79 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 99.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Miami Marlins | 61c | 79.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 77.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Miami Marlins | 71c | 74.62$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f36…905fbacked Miami Marlins | 61c | 65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 56.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 19c | 53.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 28c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8b…6a9fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc38…bb0ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 38.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…d26dbacked Miami Marlins | 61c | 34.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e7…fef1backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 33.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x634a…dddfbacked Miami Marlins | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 30.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 509 | 54%275 W · 234 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6796…453fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 704 | 50.1%353 W · 351 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Miami Marlins | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Miami Marlins | 78c | 22.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 18.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 16.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh PiratesMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.