Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26946e358fe14d202e79e1a4d8c94141dc07584df96acadf82b0c1bb7cf3b0b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 0c | 2,858$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 38c | 724.89$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.2 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 60c | 321.33$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.68 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 311.18$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.48 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 290.48$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.98 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 9c | 239.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 61c | 197.41$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.99 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 66c | 172.46$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.47 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 60c | 168.49$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.4 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 38c | 161.68$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56aa…9e31backed No | 80c | 126.69$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 66c | 124.24$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed No | 80c | 107.19$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 40c | 104.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 66c | 94.1$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 35c | 91.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 40c | 79.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 64c | 70.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 69c | 70.06$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x100c…edc9backed Yes | 40c | 69.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 65c | 68.49$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 32c | 62.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed No | 68c | 60.63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 38c | 52.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 24c | 49.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 44.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 60c | 41.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 41.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf03b…34fdbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 66c | 37.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 61c | 36.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 74c | 36.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 32c | 35.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 61c | 31.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a3…902dbacked Yes | 38c | 31.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7d…6b2dbacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373e…b868backed No | 75c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 26.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x863a…a08bbacked No | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 74c | 21.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…c3ddbacked No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…704ebacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on August 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.