Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf60bcf3d400e796e841775c752c9aa4b8668a539d788061350a1d08ce9d2b430
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,459
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,459 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 61c | 679.81$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.83 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed No | 3c | 452.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 335.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 294.06$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.82 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 257.76$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 41c | 253.73$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.77 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 38c | 240.3$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.17 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 38c | 211.2$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.95 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked Yes | 77c | 198.05$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.68 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 38c | 193.14$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.75 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 39c | 179.07$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.01 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 163.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf24b…1a80backed No | 6c | 156.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 50c | 109.39$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.44 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed No | 36c | 98.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 44c | 95.72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.57 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 74.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 63c | 70.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.17 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 59c | 66.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 71c | 65.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 66c | 52.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 41c | 43.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 56c | 43.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 61c | 42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 39c | 40.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 36c | 39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 41c | 38.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 38c | 35.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 29c | 35.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 34.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 56c | 34.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…80ecbacked No | 61c | 31.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed Yes | 63c | 30.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 66c | 29.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 53c | 28.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 42c | 26.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 26.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 49c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd74…730cbacked Yes | 80c | 19.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.