Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26e1d87a6c2ef3632cae9233f19a477c804a621769c54fcb0996294cb4d455f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 42c | 443.27$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.28 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 10c | 395.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 57c | 394.37$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.85 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 20c | 301.25$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 8c | 235.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 44c | 233.55$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.62 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 31c | 227.09$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.49 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 42c | 199$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.64 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed Yes | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 58c | 176.88$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.3 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 54c | 173.17$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.17 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…485fbacked Yes | 37c | 134.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.43 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee08…ca2ebacked Yes | 78c | 128.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 119.02$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…d600backed Yes | 73c | 113.59$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 44c | 108$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 55c | 92.35$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 45c | 83.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 56c | 71.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 49c | 70.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 58c | 66.08$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 54c | 64.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 45c | 62.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfab1…e45bbacked Yes | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked No | 25c | 57.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 55c | 54.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02be…fb0ebacked No | 43c | 52.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 54c | 51.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 50c | 46.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 56c | 45.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 43c | 42.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 59c | 40.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 28c | 38.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec34…b109backed Yes | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 72c | 34.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 33.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 60c | 33.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked Yes | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 57c | 27.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 48c | 27.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 56c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 57c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 59c | 25.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 55c | 23.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 48c | 22.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 77c | 15.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.