MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26f9216647edb1e01553d50eab474ba8d29c9ffbaa6df711d9b5ab4f3a314bfb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Houston Astros, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,523
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,554
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,523 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Houston Astros | 34c | 18,000$6,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,180 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 13,377$8,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,747.71 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Houston Astros | 35c | 6,306$2,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,176.56 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 5,011$3,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,713.92 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Houston Astros | 37c | 4,176$1,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,527.02 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 2,155$1,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.7 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 1,956$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.38 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 1,744$1,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.68 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 1,500$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.99 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 1,041$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.87 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 865.38$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.88 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 420$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.8 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 407.14$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.22 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Houston Astros | 40c | 171.18$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.47 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 115.38$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 76c | 90.82$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 89.47$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Houston Astros | 34c | 57.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Houston Astros | 42c | 49.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Houston Astros | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 27.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 25.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddfc…cd9ebacked Houston Astros | 43c | 23.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-4.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.