MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98015f59bfd6c640dbbff9f8c63b4bac7fcca3b7a4057bba38a09d3752de5da8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Under | 63c | 4,762$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,761.9 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 39c | 4,727$1,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,843.53 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a0…6623backed Under | 63c | 2,400$1,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888 | 398 | 46.5%185 W · 213 L | -16.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 46c | 1,747$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.03 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 54c | 1,495$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 56c | 1,323$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.33 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 40c | 1,067$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.8 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 737.39$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.25 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 37c | 716$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.92 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 37c | 693.7$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.67 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Over | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 37c | 420$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.4 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 39c | 409.71$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.34 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Over | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Over | 37c | 321$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.77 | 718 | 50.1%360 W · 358 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 33c | 302.3$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.16 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 44c | 270.23$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Over | 38c | 210.39$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.95 | 209 | 44%92 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 50c | 181.04$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.05 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 37c | 110.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 43c | 91.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Over | 37c | 89.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 61c | 52.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 765 | 58%444 W · 321 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 38c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked Under | 54c | 37.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 37c | 32.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 35c | 30.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2c…be40backed Under | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bda…8254backed Under | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 89 | 66.3%59 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f0…e7b3backed Under | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee80…7749backed Under | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd431…a3cabacked Under | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3250…60fabacked Under | 61c | 17.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdd…8148backed Under | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 64cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71f9…525fbacked Under | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-4.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.