MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc72b691a359231d2070bbf3f07330761a94c1d42fac6ef4c3537d6b81137731a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Toronto Blue Jays, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,641
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,641 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 6,783$2,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,355.02 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros | 63c | 6,462$4,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,053.73 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 5,015$2,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,741.13 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros | 42c | 3,240$1,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,351.05 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Houston Astros | 64c | 2,112$1,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,351.68 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Houston Astros | 64c | 517.03$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.9 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros | 61c | 505.18$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.12 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Houston Astros | 64c | 500$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros | 64c | 240.19$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.72 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Houston Astros | 63c | 239$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.57 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 236.64$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.83 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Houston Astros | 41c | 200.94$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.39 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd130…5863backed Toronto Blue Jays | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 33c | 156$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.78 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 25c | 138.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.76 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Houston Astros | 74c | 133.46$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.76 | 795 | 55.6%442 W · 353 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Toronto Blue Jays | 20c | 124.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.56 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 113.89$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.89 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 113.89$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.89 | 549 | 51.2%281 W · 268 L | +29.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 102.35$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Houston Astros | 33c | 94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Houston Astros | 68c | 93.48$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.88 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 91.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.67 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Houston Astros | 77c | 77.03$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.31 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 71.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.56 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 68.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.45 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Houston Astros | 77c | 68.42$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.68 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Houston Astros | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Houston Astros | 71c | 61.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 765 | 58%444 W · 321 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 58.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 54.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 799 | 43.2%345 W · 454 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Houston Astros | 72c | 53.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 28c | 50.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.46 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 50.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Houston Astros | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe997…f92ebacked Houston Astros | 59c | 41.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f3…c784backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Toronto Blue Jays | 32c | 36.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc650…55a1backed Houston Astros | 61c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…8f86backed Houston Astros | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed Houston Astros | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf19f…d494backed Houston Astros | 63c | 24.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Houston Astros | 58c | 23.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Houston Astros | 64c | 22.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1,026 | 58.1%596 W · 430 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Houston Astros | 61c | 21.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 582 | 54.3%316 W · 266 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd50a…8ab2backed Houston Astros | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Houston Astros | 66c | 15.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-4.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.