Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Darderi (-1.5) vs Vallejo (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x273869a71a2e9d4f099af920cb9deeb8ed747dca4c3f0fdea588e2df898ab9a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vallejoof Darderi, Vallejo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,412
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3663…8950backed Vallejo | 58c | 16,000$9,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,724.72 | 392 | 43.4%170 W · 222 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Darderi | 42c | 10,000$4,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,200 | 582 | 32%186 W · 396 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Darderi | 42c | 3,109$1,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,305.75 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Darderi | 42c | 2,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.99 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Darderi | 42c | 1,428$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.54 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15bc…4a7ebacked Vallejo | 58c | 927.53$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.21 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Darderi | 42c | 600$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Vallejo | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 632 | 52.8%334 W · 298 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…7059backed Vallejo | 58c | 319.83$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.33 | 176 | 46%81 W · 95 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Darderi | 43c | 257.84$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.87 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Vallejo | 57c | 241.98$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.05 | 2,247 | 42.7%960 W · 1,287 L | +33.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed Darderi | 44c | 227$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.88 | 265 | 46.4%123 W · 142 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Darderi | 44c | 210.18$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.48 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…70b4backed Vallejo | 49c | 199.1$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Vallejo | 51c | 196.13$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.52 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Darderi | 53c | 191.87$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.13 | 651 | 57.1%372 W · 279 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…f4f1backed Darderi | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Darderi | 58c | 145.07$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.56 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Darderi | 42c | 107.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 992 | 49.4%490 W · 502 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Vallejo | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Darderi | 18c | 83.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Vallejo | 42c | 74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.92 | 335 | 50.1%168 W · 167 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Vallejo | 74c | 67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Darderi | 42c | 64.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 559 | 41.3%231 W · 328 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Darderi | 41c | 61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 1,624 | 49.8%809 W · 815 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Vallejo | 29c | 51.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 578 | 45.7%264 W · 314 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Darderi | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 264 | 41.7%110 W · 154 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Vallejo | 57c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 1,250 | 44.7%559 W · 691 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…4968backed Darderi | 62c | 40.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 126 | 41.3%52 W · 74 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Vallejo | 56c | 39.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Darderi | 51c | 38.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Vallejo | 29c | 34.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 625 | 49.6%310 W · 315 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a0…6c8ebacked Vallejo | 58c | 31.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf126…a54cbacked Darderi | 61c | 28.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -8.2wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Vallejo | 74c | 14.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Darderi (-1.5) vs Vallejo (+1.5)this page
- Adolfo Vallejo vs. Luciano Darderi: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set 2 Winner: Vallejo vs DarderiVallejo won
- Swedish Open: Adolfo Vallejo vs Luciano DarderiLuciano Darderi won
- Vallejo vs. Darderi: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Vallejo vs. Darderi: Match O/U 22.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.