MLB · resolved market
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x274ad35a8362b65dea012d6602678cd60bc3b1efff2aa032e57c0a1580da290e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Texas Rangers, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,132
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 66c | 4,628$3,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,573.39 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Texas Rangers | 34c | 3,734$1,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,281.89 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Texas Rangers | 39c | 3,012$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180.24 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 774.84$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.19 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 489.48$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.79 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Miami Marlins | 60c | 470.81$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.32 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 388.7$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.48 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Miami Marlins | 68c | 335.03$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.05 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63ec…3b76backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 323.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.71 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Texas Rangers | 31c | 289$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.59 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 287$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.33 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Texas Rangers | 37c | 276.75$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.03 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…470fbacked Miami Marlins | 64c | 274.24$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.81 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Texas Rangers | 38c | 253.68$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.4 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…dcc7backed Texas Rangers | 40c | 249.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.7 | 121 | 28.1%34 W · 87 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Texas Rangers | 19c | 222.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Texas Rangers | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Texas Rangers | 41c | 98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee0c…3e4dbacked Miami Marlins | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 81.96$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Miami Marlins | 58c | 78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Texas Rangers | 40c | 61.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Miami Marlins | 61c | 58.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Miami Marlins | 70c | 58.2$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Texas Rangers | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Texas Rangers | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Texas Rangers | 36c | 49.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Texas Rangers | 23c | 46.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Texas Rangers | 37c | 44.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 40.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Miami Marlins | 66c | 35.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d8…a490backed Miami Marlins | 68c | 34.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Texas Rangers | 36c | 30.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Texas Rangers | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 24.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…8f86backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)this page
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.