MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8b71a167126bc8718c1b5fe9865b111c4c7b75c672a332a0c9c4f7373d90c15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,681
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Yes | 46c | 1,288$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.88 | 252 | 49.2%124 W · 128 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 55c | 454.83$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.67 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f6…bab8backed No | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 139 | 51.8%72 W · 67 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eeb…3300backed No | 54c | 304.56$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.03 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 58c | 215.58$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.6 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6f…f8e8backed No | 55c | 145.64$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.64 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +7.2wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes | 44c | 138.55$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.57 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…dcc7backed Yes | 44c | 135.68$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 121 | 28.1%34 W · 87 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 54c | 105$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 56c | 98.81$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…400bbacked Yes | 42c | 45.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4666…3a55backed No | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Yes | 41c | 37.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked No | 58c | 35.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6643…0109backed Yes | 42c | 32.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 254 | 40.6%103 W · 151 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 53c | 29.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlinsthis page
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.