Premier League · resolved market
Will Newcastle vs. Manchester City end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2757f3f1d1501ce3e5267eb5baa5ac2289ba590ed6a75354d2930163ff063521
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 2c | 3,083$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.94 | 342 | 51.8%177 W · 165 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdba6…0218backed No | 78c | 2,500$1,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,961.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Yes | 21c | 1,580$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245.52 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked No | 77c | 1,350$1,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.78 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed No | 35c | 671.83$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 253 | 29.2%74 W · 179 L | +11.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c7…1b5bbacked Yes | 21c | 561.82$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.83 | 179 | 45.8%82 W · 97 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed42…7718backed Yes | 22c | 554.55$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 200 | 40.5%81 W · 119 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…77b7backed Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.55 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…df65backed Yes | 61c | 405.69$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 78c | 393.34$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.81 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Yes | 22c | 355.22$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.11 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3130…a420backed No | 79c | 303.21$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 74cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb332…cea1backed Yes | 23c | 303$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +114.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc0…8443backed No | 79c | 252.15$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c56…fe4abacked Yes | 23c | 252.15$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0deb…2549backed No | 79c | 218$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.24 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 77c | 204.15$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.2 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 20c | 171.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.87 | 283 | 55.5%157 W · 126 L | +17.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1878…fa4fbacked Yes | 55c | 110.25$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…ba70backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce7…27e7backed Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fff…10d5backed Yes | 66c | 83.87$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 208 | 19.2%40 W · 168 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 54c | 74.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Yes | 69c | 65.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb6…df1cbacked No | 80c | 62.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 72cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…f7d3backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce9…ced7backed No | 47c | 42.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…8151backed No | 42c | 40.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbea9…02f9backed Yes | 33c | 34.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad5d…67b1backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Newcastle vs. Manchester City end in a draw?this page
- Will Manchester City beat Newcastle?No won
- Will Newcastle beat Manchester City?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.