TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Downof Up, Down
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$111,242
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$116,428

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,242 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaa98…90bbbacked Up47c11,722$5,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,560.17847.4%37 W · 41 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Down75c6,991$5,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,747.8393040.3%375 W · 555 L-67.5wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-31.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xba0d…9a6ebacked Down63c6,837$4,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,529.692100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4060…3ec3backed Down48c5,381$2,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,772.0929264%187 W · 105 L+47.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+41.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xa80e…b94bbacked Up41c4,874$2,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,021.472653.8%14 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+21.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeaa5…888fbacked Down66c3,900$2,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,344.993450%17 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa540…0b43backed Up40c3,776$1,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,511.271,26524.5%310 W · 955 L-56.9wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-44.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x41f3…844ebacked Up35c3,443$1,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,194.2530438.8%118 W · 186 L+20.0wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9567…e505backed Down68c2,229$1,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.522560%15 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1c9…6872backed Up47c1,943$904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904.077960.8%48 W · 31 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe87e…57cfbacked Up38c1,900$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9c7…147abacked Up41c1,572$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.432536%9 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-45.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe105…185bbacked Up55c1,492$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.042958.6%17 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Up39c1,450$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5647526.7%20 W · 55 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick28cpaid+29.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb427…4c62backed Up40c1,103$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.224768.1%32 W · 15 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+18.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf60e…936dbacked Up39c1,080$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.883441.2%14 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9f0…0a1bbacked Up48c1,018$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.3130%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x888c…ec00backed Down60c999$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.6425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Up8c922.11$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2321011.9%25 W · 185 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-59.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15fb…252dbacked Down45c812.67$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.953056.7%17 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked Up64c800$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5094254.8%23 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9c0…c45cbacked Down39c646.97$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.23250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e5c…adc7backed Up40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf40f…c3bcbacked Up43c461.75$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.3911637.1%43 W · 73 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6dc…12ecbacked Up57c380.21$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.257234.7%25 W · 47 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-34.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8586…cb06backed Up39c374.52$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Up38c249.58$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1935750.4%180 W · 177 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a63…100cbacked Up33c243.63$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82e0…bcfdbacked Up42c238.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9cd…9a4cbacked Up78c219.99$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.591540%6 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-32.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x628b…b84fbacked Up37c210$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.7616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-73.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c12…3d74backed Up5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x649f…fd8dbacked Up25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-44%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59d4…b745backed Up32c195$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.432737%10 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-27.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc512…7fdfbacked Up10c190.02$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.382729.6%8 W · 19 L-3.1wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-42.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb75…f496backed Down16c187.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.54934.7%17 W · 32 L+11.0wins+0.22per pick12cpaid+159.2%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x737e…37b0backed Up53c187.04$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8d1…40c3backed Down43c157.8$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.181747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7151…4404backed Down23c152.42$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.271241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d2b…3bbbbacked Up43c151.13$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfac2…f35fbacked Up9c150$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.751442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7238…b114backed Up43c144.75$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18d8…c364backed Down53c138.41$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.05966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+27.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x11be…714abacked Up46c135$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-51%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6615…3002backed Up72c120$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x78b1…f58fbacked Down73c112.09$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.141566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+22.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa2ff…6ab4backed Up67c111.65$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.761833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-23.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x789a…1ddabacked Up44c101.41$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.621643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea8a…b51ebacked Down63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick55cpaid+88.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf340…d71abacked Up39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa67d…49ebbacked Up39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e68…826bbacked Down19c100$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.81442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x417b…18d3backed Up44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.283842.1%16 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4907…e458backed Up30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bc3…384ebacked Up47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick43cpaid-71.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x639d…4afbbacked Down69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e77…e626backed Down75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+50.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf5ca…82d1backed Up38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2a7…6019backed Up37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xab51…2473backed Down57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439422.3%21 W · 73 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc58c…0a81backed Up66c100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58e2…5635backed Up48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4528…24dcbacked Down35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651675%12 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+41.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa477…e23ebacked Up20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2720…d578backed Up68c99.99$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedc9…e105backed Up44c90.91$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+15.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x049e…5409backed Up73c75.34$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22f1…6415backed Down52c75$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.911838.1%45 W · 73 L-10.6wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-36.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf19a…646bbacked Up33c68$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b78…47cdbacked Down44c60$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06ce…0b8bbacked Down38c55.85$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.918744.8%39 W · 48 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Down58c53.04$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.444610.9%5 W · 41 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-75.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5a1a…6fc0backed Up43c48.05$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.69633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21c8…f804backed Up43c46.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+22.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a0a…3a9dbacked Up43c46.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.77520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-59.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fad…9542backed Up57c44.58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fa…60f9backed Up40c43.85$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93d8…4e8ebacked Down68c41$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16be…7426backed Up57c38.18$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa423…fd1dbacked Down68c36.76$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.762080%16 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+21.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8ed1…908cbacked Up46c36.39$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.59728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick53cpaid-56.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b0a…5083backed Down56c34.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b24…d8e3backed Up61c32.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1250…db19backed Down67c29.84$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.851369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7e1…063cbacked Down68c27$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabcf…17b7backed Up63c25.46$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b1…dcc0backed Down59c23.85$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa242…605abacked Down68c23.59$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac5…2ef1backed Down77c23.03$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08bf…df57backed Up49c23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.161855.6%10 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.17per pick72cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdf28…e94bbacked Down74c21.51$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4867…a6f8backed Down54c20.39$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.389658.3%56 W · 40 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96fe…6a5ebacked Down79c16.27$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e76…5c7abacked Up67c15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.