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MLB · resolved market

Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Detroit Tigersof Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,537
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,613

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,537 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x224a…a3d5backed Chicago White Sox40c5,939$2,393 inLost-$2,393.324,42747.5%2,101 W · 2,326 L-77.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Detroit Tigers61c5,315$3,260 inWon+$2,055.4911,65352.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L+214.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Detroit Tigers63c1,175$742 inWon+$433.254,12057.6%2,375 W · 1,745 L+67.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57b1…4b99backed Detroit Tigers65c923.07$600 inWon+$323.0717546.9%82 W · 93 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Chicago White Sox35c784.71$275 inLost-$274.657,07850.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L+1.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago White Sox16c499$81 inLost-$80.524,44545%2,001 W · 2,444 L+87.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Chicago White Sox28c428.53$120 inLost-$120.4511,10251.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L+135.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf874…def4backed Detroit Tigers63c236.86$150 inWon+$86.8629656.1%166 W · 130 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Detroit Tigers64c194.22$124 inWon+$69.925,56750.5%2,812 W · 2,755 L+25.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x51f4…3e21backed Chicago White Sox36c175.78$63 inLost-$63.1725034.8%87 W · 163 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Detroit Tigers78c156$122 inWon+$34.325,18254.6%2,829 W · 2,353 L+227.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Detroit Tigers79c97.18$77 inWon+$20.513,46751.2%1,775 W · 1,692 L+105.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Chicago White Sox36c71.27$26 inLost-$25.954,20150.2%2,109 W · 2,092 L+94.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5407…5bbdbacked Chicago White Sox27c53.33$14 inLost-$14.477836%280 W · 498 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46b1…428cbacked Detroit Tigers64c50.64$32 inWon+$18.2419163.4%121 W · 70 L+14.3wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+10.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1631…072dbacked Detroit Tigers59c48$28 inWon+$19.6877353.9%417 W · 356 L+35.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc23…a9f2backed Detroit Tigers65c45$29 inWon+$15.7546854.5%255 W · 213 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1719…ec68backed Detroit Tigers65c45$29 inWon+$15.7572154.2%391 W · 330 L+20.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+144.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Chicago White Sox39c39.63$15 inLost-$15.411,15031.7%365 W · 785 L-95.6wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-26.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago White Sox35c34.22$12 inLost-$11.984,55549.2%2,239 W · 2,316 L-9.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Chicago White Sox39c29$11 inLost-$11.436,30948.2%3,044 W · 3,265 L+181.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Chicago White Sox43c27.4$12 inLost-$11.782,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Chicago White Sox41c25.67$11 inLost-$10.625,86143.7%2,562 W · 3,299 L-190.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Detroit Tigers67c24.99$17 inWon+$8.251,85254%1,001 W · 851 L+25.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Detroit Tigers57c21$12 inWon+$9.021,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0b…5720backed Detroit Tigers56c18.34$10 inWon+$8.073268.8%22 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xab96…8d69backed Detroit Tigers62c17.81$11 inWon+$6.77875%6 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.