MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x870d9c800557c0237b08eedc83491683f45bbff030811755337c8f8fbf1e20c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,533
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,533 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Over | 40c | 3,275$1,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,310.08 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 59c | 3,220$1,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,309.75 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 2,717$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,396.88 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 52c | 1,449$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.51 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…7800backed Over | 49c | 999.01$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.95 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 60c | 424.02$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.97 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 55c | 286$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.05 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 48c | 204.4$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.41 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 46c | 177.11$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.21 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fb…1c4abacked Over | 31c | 161.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 40c | 128.31$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.32 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 117.6$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.71 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 46c | 108.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.01 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 41c | 99.8$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…9634backed Over | 15c | 90.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda48…5926backed Over | 65c | 83.84$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Under | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Under | 32c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 40c | 46.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 59c | 37.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…342ebacked Under | 60c | 32.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Under | 61c | 32.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Under | 56c | 29.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Under | 56c | 28.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 55c | 28.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Over | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Over | 79c | 22.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Over | 55c | 22.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 60c | 21.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20b8…0effbacked Under | 56c | 20.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Over | 55c | 19.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 55c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 67c | 17.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit TigersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.