Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27a779221268757ff8f3946f66fe5d86fbc068eaf43d874abbbf93c671042f62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked No | 33c | 589.79$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.12 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 65c | 564.82$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.4 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 35c | 546.98$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.6 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 49c | 472.57$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.96 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 59c | 470.95$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.23 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 66c | 335.95$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.94 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 18c | 317.64$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.48 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba9d…46efbacked Yes | 30c | 248.34$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 21c | 228.6$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.52 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 56c | 216.3$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.58 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 24c | 213$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 211.82$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.28 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 210.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…794ebacked Yes | 35c | 199.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 50c | 193.17$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.66 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed No | 50c | 168.61$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.86 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 56c | 158.41$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.62 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 72c | 158.23$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.57 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed No | 42c | 156.62$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.29 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 153.75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 48c | 148.33$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.51 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 37c | 140$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 139.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 22c | 137$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885a…4e58backed No | 61c | 132.48$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +46%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 26c | 129.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 73c | 123.29$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 56c | 114.79$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.04 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed No | 65c | 102.72$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 100.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes | 54c | 98.04$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.22 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee08…ca2ebacked No | 56c | 89.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 70c | 84.8$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6809…eae7backed No | 74c | 82.32$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 73c | 80.63$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed No | 35c | 79.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 65c | 76.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 75c | 76.56$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.34 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 72$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…dcf7backed No | 62c | 70.08$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…5e94backed No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…b9c8backed No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed No | 32c | 64.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2194…ae18backed No | 30c | 63.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.57 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 54c | 60.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 69c | 59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabcb…3103backed No | 80c | 55.02$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…b8debacked Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf02…ee21backed Yes | 48c | 54.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 68c | 54.94$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 26c | 53.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 64c | 52.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 33c | 51.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 48c | 51.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 27c | 49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 48.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 61c | 48.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 34c | 48.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c6…4d0fbacked Yes | 51c | 47.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…cd9abacked No | 30c | 40.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 76c | 40.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b2f…318bbacked Yes | 37c | 39.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 78c | 39.04$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 79c | 38.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf9…876ebacked Yes | 47c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 53c | 37.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 38c | 36.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 52c | 36.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf430…e6bcbacked Yes | 48c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 35c | 35.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 76c | 32.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 56c | 32.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x150a…b6b1backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -8.7wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…6555backed Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 28.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 71c | 27.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 45c | 26.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 42c | 25.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd74…730cbacked No | 60c | 24.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x038c…b4e0backed Yes | 80c | 24.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 74c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 70c | 22.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 52c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 95 | 73.7%70 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 48c | 21.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9935…a6b4backed Yes | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…6483backed Yes | 72c | 20.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5938…7788backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf210…68fcbacked Yes | 63c | 18.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8deb…d8d5backed No | 74c | 15.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x577e…3756backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…825ebacked Yes | 68c | 14.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.