Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed2dcb7ef23790089c5143052fbf62c081879ef040a9e37a7b43658779adb594
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,254
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,490
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,254 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd351…b2d9backed Yes | 42c | 643.85$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.56 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 545.81$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.23 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed7…9117backed Yes | 50c | 378.08$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.67 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 27c | 332.92$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.85 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd616…55aabacked Yes | 37c | 268.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba9d…46efbacked Yes | 43c | 259.53$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.05 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 65c | 238.96$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.73 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 38c | 222.29$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.39 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee08…ca2ebacked No | 67c | 221.05$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.29 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 213.68$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.91 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 191.26$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.67 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 23c | 147.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.48 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 146.3$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 22c | 140.51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.3 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 128.89$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.3 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 123.56$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.59 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked No | 66c | 123.52$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.03 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 41c | 108.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 43c | 97.67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.67 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 64c | 94.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 59c | 88.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 41c | 87.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 45c | 80.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.32 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 74$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.77 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed No | 58c | 71.17$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 69c | 71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 25c | 66.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.08 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 44c | 52.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 36c | 49.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 30c | 47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 24c | 46.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 25c | 42.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 41.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 41c | 41.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 28c | 40.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 65c | 40.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 39.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…b8debacked Yes | 41c | 36.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 61c | 36.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 54c | 36.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 44c | 35.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 57c | 35.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed No | 61c | 34.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 58c | 34.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 79c | 33.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 58c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 32.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 68c | 31.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…266abacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 29.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 28.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 65c | 27.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 64c | 24.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd597…9babbacked No | 59c | 24.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 57c | 23.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 61c | 22.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 56c | 21.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 57c | 20.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 62c | 20.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86ae…697fbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02e2…701abacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x772f…b3aebacked No | 59c | 19.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 57c | 18.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2e…e75ebacked Yes | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2e…c5dbbacked Yes | 75c | 14.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.