Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27e1f7fb69602a6f4663008e87ad5d12842cc16ed30a7c008c8237c555d4c305
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,763
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,763 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked No | 55c | 1,965$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.96 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d32…a2a7backed No | 42c | 1,684$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x285e…f38cbacked Yes | 34c | 1,462$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.58 | 64 | 14.1%9 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781a…96e6backed No | 76c | 1,307$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x448d…3adebacked No | 44c | 1,282$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.51 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 53c | 695.1$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.67 | 365 | 50.4%184 W · 181 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Yes | 43c | 680.84$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.1 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5e…b5ecbacked Yes | 50c | 633.45$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5c…55dfbacked Yes | 58c | 584.6$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.6 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -35%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…e505backed No | 58c | 550$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.6 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Yes | 51c | 502.82$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.79 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64a7…2133backed Yes | 71c | 400$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 23c | 400$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed No | 56c | 358.32$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.22 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8251…879dbacked Yes | 28c | 326.12$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.96 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 34c | 274.41$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.41 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb986…4b60backed No | 46c | 244.87$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.12 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc080…f9a0backed Yes | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes | 31c | 234.26$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.54 | 294 | 36.1%106 W · 188 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed No | 58c | 214.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.61 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 55c | 188.93$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.11 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee5f…5468backed Yes | 52c | 175.9$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.43 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6be6…9539backed Yes | 23c | 171.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.39 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 44c | 146.87$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.1 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 54c | 139.77$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.43 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed No | 41c | 136.86$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.14 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4c…34a1backed Yes | 54c | 130.45$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.45 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 105.17$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked Yes | 43c | 101.28$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…33c0backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +152%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd62…344abacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ce…aec5backed Yes | 58c | 88.93$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…ffd2backed No | 63c | 78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 106 | 67.9%72 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb92…8bd7backed No | 61c | 77.3$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4a…8a46backed Yes | 67c | 76.56$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 48c | 75.09$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 305 | 34.8%106 W · 199 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed No | 72c | 75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…4bd3backed No | 68c | 72.22$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 64cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6289…cd99backed Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc8…adf7backed Yes | 36c | 65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcae…6e9dbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…5861backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ea…5843backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +162.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa589…aa13backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb7…79dcbacked Yes | 38c | 30.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +165.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabcf…17b7backed Yes | 56c | 28.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac3a…6835backed Yes | 41c | 26.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18b3…4a57backed Yes | 42c | 25.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 45c | 25.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 93 | 12.9%12 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…160cbacked Yes | 72c | 20.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 65c | 20.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2db…6865backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…fdb3backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 66cpaid | +34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on June 3?this page
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 3?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 3?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 3?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 3?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 3?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 3?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.