Tennis · resolved market
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Learner Tien vs Miomir Kecmanovic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27f1a3a3cb59cb807708149943df31bd7399c4166d106246d65b27b4b62bc777
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tienof Tien, Kecmanovic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,643
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,643 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Kecmanovic | 49c | 13,609$6,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,725.83 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6937…085dbacked Tien | 51c | 7,025$3,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,441.22 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…0ccbbacked Tien | 55c | 3,473$1,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,574.41 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Kecmanovic | 54c | 3,454$1,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,850.68 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…d849backed Tien | 33c | 3,381$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,280.68 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kecmanovic | 55c | 3,370$1,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,837.62 | 11,779 | 43.3%5,102 W · 6,677 L | +20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Kecmanovic | 49c | 3,212$1,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,569.12 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Tien | 52c | 2,500$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200.41 | 443 | 60%266 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Kecmanovic | 48c | 2,147$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.32 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Tien | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Kecmanovic | 48c | 1,600$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.99 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -9.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Kecmanovic | 49c | 1,514$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.3 | 365 | 40.8%149 W · 216 L | -13.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…5bf6backed Tien | 51c | 1,300$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.54 | 206 | 53.4%110 W · 96 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Tien | 54c | 1,102$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.7 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed Kecmanovic | 49c | 1,050$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.5 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Kecmanovic | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Kecmanovic | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Tien | 51c | 971.15$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.15 | 1,448 | 48.8%707 W · 741 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…e89abacked Tien | 57c | 876.16$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.16 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Tien | 38c | 789.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.47 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Kecmanovic | 54c | 741.11$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.2 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Kecmanovic | 59c | 736.82$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.93 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Tien | 62c | 720$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.2 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Tien | 51c | 696.25$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.36 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…7f00backed Tien | 51c | 438.41$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.82 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde44…cb51backed Tien | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 134 | 35.1%47 W · 87 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed Kecmanovic | 49c | 325.79$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Tien | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…7308backed Kecmanovic | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Tien | 52c | 292.12$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.22 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Tien | 47c | 271$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.92 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Tien | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Tien | 41c | 230.43$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.05 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47ca…c7f5backed Tien | 52c | 211.44$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.49 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +39%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…a920backed Tien | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Kecmanovic | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Kecmanovic | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Tien | 44c | 183.38$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.38 | 2,348 | 46.5%1,092 W · 1,256 L | +54.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…53d2backed Tien | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 250 | 43.2%108 W · 142 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49c…773ebacked Kecmanovic | 47c | 109.43$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.43 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Tien | 50c | 104.26$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.26 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41cc…26eabacked Kecmanovic | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Tien | 52c | 98.23$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…5976backed Tien | 48c | 62.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8004…8125backed Tien | 49c | 50.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacff…3872backed Kecmanovic | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Tien | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Tien | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…d40dbacked Kecmanovic | 46c | 44.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -6.9wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6380…e74fbacked Tien | 60c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Kecmanovic | 49c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1037…413fbacked Tien | 52c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +139.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Tien | 52c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 248 | 37.5%93 W · 155 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff9…a266backed Tien | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2d…dcc2backed Tien | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Tien | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Kecmanovic | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf17…3eeebacked Tien | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a27…a953backed Tien | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…fcc9backed Tien | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…7be0backed Tien | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 106 | 55.7%59 W · 47 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45a2…09f2backed Tien | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.