AI · resolved market
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x280d8e46f5ba05a25df84a3f901abd6611823ffa2da4a9867292fa131803058c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,825 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6516…7b7cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,039$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 18c | 671.69$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.1 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 32c | 652.61$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.42 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed No | 77c | 567.61$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.14 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 15c | 300$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a6…22b2backed Yes | 13c | 247.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 15c | 176.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…51eebacked Yes | 10c | 159.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 17c | 158.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…abaabacked Yes | 16c | 125.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354f…ed37backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…79b8backed Yes | 42c | 72.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 77c | 61.16$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1602…d7afbacked Yes | 31c | 56.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 75c | 54.43$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 23c | 49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -54%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x25a2…902cbacked Yes | 35c | 39.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…d8f1backed Yes | 35c | 35.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -7.8wins | -0.23per pick | 55cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7444…9a8cbacked Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 13?this page
- Will Paprika Recipe Manager 3 be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 13?No won
- Will RadarScope be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 13?No won
- Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 13?Yes won
- Will TonalEnergy Tuner & Metronome be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.