NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Pacers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28123b6ec412eab7732db4d7df57f8696a5eebf57187f98e5ec331535c9fc88c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pacersof Wizards, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $114,442
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $113,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,442 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe2b…ed08backed Wizards | 20c | 10,727$2,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,145.48 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf79b…107abacked Wizards | 7c | 7,138$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.69 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Wizards | 18c | 5,501$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.88 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked Wizards | 15c | 4,631$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.28 | 461 | 31%143 W · 318 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…c4c8backed Wizards | 14c | 4,625$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.05 | 139 | 20.1%28 W · 111 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Wizards | 23c | 3,977$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.77 | 236 | 46.6%110 W · 126 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Wizards | 25c | 3,666$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.55 | 596 | 46.1%275 W · 321 L | -16.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…4bb7backed Wizards | 15c | 3,285$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.97 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Wizards | 15c | 3,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Wizards | 18c | 2,859$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.56 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8b…4f21backed Wizards | 16c | 2,158$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338 | 128 | 41.4%53 W · 75 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc223…1cbfbacked Wizards | 19c | 2,032$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.73 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Wizards | 20c | 1,856$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.14 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Wizards | 17c | 1,761$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.42 | 259 | 39%101 W · 158 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b2…ece3backed Wizards | 15c | 1,629$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.36 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x861e…b54fbacked Wizards | 21c | 1,546$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…9fd5backed Wizards | 20c | 1,535$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.41 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Wizards | 22c | 1,416$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.27 | 656 | 42.5%279 W · 377 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…cfb9backed Wizards | 5c | 1,350$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Pacers | 78c | 1,342$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.29 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddb…0974backed Pacers | 80c | 1,318$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.23 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…085fbacked Wizards | 25c | 1,200$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.04 | 166 | 17.5%29 W · 137 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Wizards | 16c | 1,033$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.89 | 1,090 | 35.8%390 W · 700 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x986f…cac8backed Wizards | 24c | 1,007$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.7 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…681abacked Pacers | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Wizards | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Wizards | 5c | 980.89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.24 | 1,035 | 1.1%11 W · 1,024 L | -24.4wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -90.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6459…c926backed Wizards | 16c | 940$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.9 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f7…266fbacked Wizards | 1c | 800$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 457 | 3.5%16 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576b…7336backed Wizards | 25c | 754.75$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.24 | 183 | 16.9%31 W · 152 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x719d…4e73backed Pacers | 76c | 730.61$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.9 | 118 | 34.7%41 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbec2…826bbacked Wizards | 20c | 700$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 58 | 20.7%12 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…a821backed Pacers | 76c | 684.99$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.4 | 238 | 35.7%85 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Wizards | 23c | 674.65$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.16 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3849…35ebbacked Wizards | 26c | 624.72$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.43 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Wizards | 4c | 623.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4329…ba41backed Wizards | 27c | 616.89$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.56 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.31per pick | 40cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec5c…ce46backed Wizards | 13c | 612.5$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 451 | 35%158 W · 293 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bad…74a7backed Wizards | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 152 | 34.9%53 W · 99 L | -11.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…5977backed Wizards | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd889…cf51backed Wizards | 21c | 480$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…a3afbacked Wizards | 12c | 460$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d53…0644backed Wizards | 18c | 450$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d46…3bffbacked Wizards | 11c | 450$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd085…ba5cbacked Wizards | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked Wizards | 18c | 388.89$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 121 | 31.4%38 W · 83 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…d39cbacked Wizards | 21c | 366.07$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -56%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…bfdbbacked Wizards | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 111 | 35.1%39 W · 72 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Wizards | 14c | 288.06$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 615 | 32.2%198 W · 417 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…c536backed Wizards | 22c | 284.41$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Wizards | 25c | 208.3$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…018abacked Wizards | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33cc…a0b6backed Wizards | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 184 | 37.5%69 W · 115 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b3…eacdbacked Wizards | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…a8cdbacked Wizards | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe38…1f16backed Wizards | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…b372backed Wizards | 16c | 184.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d69…9829backed Wizards | 18c | 170.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 290 | 43.8%127 W · 163 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66db…7afbbacked Wizards | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88ba…8dadbacked Pacers | 75c | 166$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…8516backed Wizards | 20c | 156.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 178 | 34.8%62 W · 116 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67c6…b6c1backed Wizards | 16c | 156.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7742…03e9backed Wizards | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | -17.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…13c9backed Wizards | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 235 | 48.1%113 W · 122 L | -13.9wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc2…758bbacked Wizards | 20c | 144.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7a…15b5backed Wizards | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 276 | 31.2%86 W · 190 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8140…b92fbacked Wizards | 21c | 123.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Wizards | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 258 | 36.8%95 W · 163 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e0…7433backed Wizards | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -6.9wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…d9dfbacked Wizards | 21c | 117.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…e239backed Wizards | 16c | 113.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…e845backed Wizards | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 481 | 37.2%179 W · 302 L | -15.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ea…d0c1backed Wizards | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 137 | 27.7%38 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3697…f189backed Wizards | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 652 | 18.4%120 W · 532 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x902c…50dcbacked Wizards | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked Wizards | 14c | 99.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…cf4cbacked Wizards | 25c | 99.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 172 | 44.2%76 W · 96 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Wizards | 18c | 90.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 774 | 37.5%290 W · 484 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed Wizards | 17c | 88.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 303 | 31.4%95 W · 208 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab25…aad2backed Wizards | 19c | 80.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -6.9wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8a27…fe44backed Wizards | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead7…efedbacked Pacers | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 145 | 42.8%62 W · 83 L | -7.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1651…5b99backed Wizards | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -4.4wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.