MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2827081882eca2bcfb1cfb9e12f12a355b9b2ba4d6ad2daaac39c1f9cd47ae46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 1,745$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.28 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 58c | 1,200$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…4b61backed Under | 36c | 699.99$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd3…5896backed Under | 40c | 600$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 47c | 590$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.3 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 55c | 502.15$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.43 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 48c | 412.81$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.92 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ef…e25dbacked Under | 41c | 367.27$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.36 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Over | 63c | 318.05$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.05 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…7525backed Under | 58c | 263.08$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 61c | 254.48$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.69 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 39c | 240.7$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.87 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 15c | 236$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.6 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Over | 54c | 206.26$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.76 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8133…3109backed Over | 49c | 199.56$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.92 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 55c | 129.54$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.19 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 34c | 125.53$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 50c | 104$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 44c | 102.81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 57c | 95.03$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 34c | 66.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 53c | 45.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Over | 36c | 41.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Under | 50c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8f…9166backed Over | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 44c | 34.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 48c | 25.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 50c | 25.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 61c | 21.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 59c | 17.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7983…c138backed Under | 70c | 14.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 19 | 94.7%18 W · 1 L | +5.5wins | +0.29per pick | 66cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.