TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Toronto Blue Jaysof Pittsburgh Pirates, Toronto Blue Jays
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,494
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,256

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,494 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbd14…d62abacked Pittsburgh Pirates45c13,293$5,995 inLost-$5,995.4124344.4%108 W · 135 L-11.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x47e3…e736backed Toronto Blue Jays55c5,500$3,025 inWon+$2,4754742.6%20 W · 27 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-21.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Toronto Blue Jays55c4,000$2,200 inWon+$1,8002,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Toronto Blue Jays54c3,922$2,131 inWon+$1,791.283,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Toronto Blue Jays55c2,946$1,620 inWon+$1,325.6292054%497 W · 423 L+23.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Pittsburgh Pirates46c2,883$1,326 inLost-$1,326.174,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Toronto Blue Jays54c2,066$1,126 inWon+$940.285,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays55c1,998$1,090 inWon+$908.7311,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f48…93c7backed Pittsburgh Pirates46c1,974$908 inLost-$907.931030%3 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-38.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays54c1,200$652 inWon+$5486,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Toronto Blue Jays54c1,000$540 inWon+$46073748.4%357 W · 380 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Toronto Blue Jays55c984.09$541 inWon+$442.842,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Toronto Blue Jays54c380$207 inWon+$173.41,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toronto Blue Jays55c360.99$199 inWon+$162.458,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28e8…6080backed Toronto Blue Jays55c275.23$151 inWon+$123.8547350.7%240 W · 233 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Toronto Blue Jays55c236.36$130 inWon+$106.3638353.8%206 W · 177 L+16.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3cd3…5896backed Pittsburgh Pirates44c158.84$70 inLost-$69.8917446%80 W · 94 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays59c131.03$77 inWon+$54.278,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd697…661dbacked Toronto Blue Jays56c100.77$56 inWon+$44.341050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Pittsburgh Pirates45c100$45 inLost-$4568942.2%291 W · 398 L+18.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Toronto Blue Jays55c86.02$47 inWon+$38.712,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f50…069bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates46c70$32 inLost-$32.216345.4%74 W · 89 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb8f…9166backed Pittsburgh Pirates37c67.57$25 inLost-$255947.5%28 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57af…81cebacked Pittsburgh Pirates46c65.22$30 inLost-$305855.2%32 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Pittsburgh Pirates45c50$23 inLost-$22.51,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Toronto Blue Jays56c50$28 inWon+$221,66143.5%722 W · 939 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed Toronto Blue Jays55c42.5$23 inWon+$19.1378155.6%434 W · 347 L+28.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Toronto Blue Jays55c40.1$22 inWon+$18.041,06249.2%523 W · 539 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Toronto Blue Jays55c40.01$22 inWon+$183,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Pittsburgh Pirates34c40$14 inLost-$13.699624.6%245 W · 751 L-70.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Toronto Blue Jays67c40$27 inWon+$13.247589.1%423 W · 52 L+84.9wins+0.18per pick71cpaid+25%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Pittsburgh Pirates33c40$13 inLost-$13.28,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Toronto Blue Jays66c40$26 inWon+$13.65,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc70…c386backed Toronto Blue Jays55c36.36$20 inWon+$16.362254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.