MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2b712f3514b68bb23704ffbc0e8a32c9e88629be4b89b1566a421dc70e5afd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Toronto Blue Jays, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 77c | 6,275$4,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,421.68 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 23c | 4,990$1,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,147.64 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 20c | 1,224$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.7 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 79c | 859.43$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.46 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Toronto Blue Jays | 80c | 511.04$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.21 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 21c | 430$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.3 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 78c | 248.21$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 20c | 230.71$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 26c | 189.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.89 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 20c | 185.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 18c | 177$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 20c | 163$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 74c | 120.69$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.31 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 20c | 85.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Toronto Blue Jays | 26c | 84.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.64 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Toronto Blue Jays | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 73c | 62.89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 20c | 59.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 253 | 57.3%145 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 28c | 41.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b3…5cc8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8f…9166backed Toronto Blue Jays | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 33.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 22.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.