TailMyPicks
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$124,099
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$127,781

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,099 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb077…74d3backed No0c73,550$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.4766944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2762…7fc6backed No1c2,825$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.98850%4 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No5c1,222$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0259021.7%128 W · 462 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes57c993.06$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.096,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed No33c739.71$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.133018.8%62 W · 268 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-32.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No27c684.51$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.032,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes67c507.41$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.856004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb31d…b920backed Yes26c417.02$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.5818035%63 W · 117 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes25c385.72$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.578,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2b5…47bfbacked No54c311.15$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.4217633.5%59 W · 117 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed No78c306.53$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.0442857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x108a…8159backed Yes22c296.5$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.4858732.9%193 W · 394 L+34.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes67c289.97$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.639877.6%76 W · 22 L+16.3wins+0.17per pick61cpaid+38.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x1600…9236backed Yes23c278.74$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.6935432.5%115 W · 239 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0cf…ae32backed Yes79c268.18$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.468061.3%49 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes24c253.05$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.9849038.8%190 W · 300 L+24.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes18c248.45$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.227,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf64a…db74backed Yes42c247.66$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.0433349.8%166 W · 167 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9317…5a5fbacked No33c242.18$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.923834.2%13 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-36.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes59c213.15$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.4641845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a18…364cbacked Yes67c200$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668946.1%41 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes15c198.27$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.3515939%62 W · 97 L+14.4wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+28%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes18c185.17$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.222,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No30c182.85$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.677,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c166.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No70c162.19$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.3812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No60c157.09$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.654,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes14c155.57$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.169,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No45c154.26$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.061,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes10c151.81$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.8517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xed22…6450backed Yes30c147.93$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.9943139.2%169 W · 262 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2002…996bbacked Yes67c144.33$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.636578.5%51 W · 14 L+6.9wins+0.11per pick68cpaid+22.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No66c121.11$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.971,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a4c…1116backed No36c111.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408851.1%45 W · 43 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d21…07cfbacked No11c105$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.83324.2%8 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+63.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfecc…77dabacked Yes24c100$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7640438.1%154 W · 250 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No79c89.17$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.071,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No22c80.48$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.442,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked No36c75.86$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1446148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ee3…c539backed No72c73.7$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.711471.4%10 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ddc…a869backed No67c73.12$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.173450%17 W · 17 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-15%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x64b0…ab64backed Yes22c72.72$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.9729459.5%175 W · 119 L+20.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes51c72.03$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xef22…441dbacked Yes54c65.42$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.2310053%53 W · 47 L+20.3wins+0.20per pick33cpaid+86.2%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes61c62.91$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3852935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa742…5bd4backed No76c56.63$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.032035%7 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29ad…8d47backed Yes29c56.26$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.714643.5%20 W · 26 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No69c56.16$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.631,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1a0…4a06backed No35c51.58$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.35641.1%23 W · 33 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-23.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8796…e255backed No22c51.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3511925.2%30 W · 89 L-14.1wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-37.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0b90…08e7backed Yes67c51.38$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0513554.8%74 W · 61 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No74c50.64$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4727167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ce…7648backed No71c47.83$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.831040%4 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick65cpaid-34%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked Yes25c43.23$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.3972952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes38c43.2$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.929770.4%209 W · 88 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc970…e315backed No36c42.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.216553.8%35 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ce1…c33abacked No34c41.67$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1714961.1%91 W · 58 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f44…c470backed Yes44c39.3$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.967546.7%35 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes30c39.16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.4112330.1%37 W · 86 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-12.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d84…4ff1backed No76c38.52$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2829558%171 W · 124 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed Yes76c37.11$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7895852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc7de…c28ebacked No74c36.19$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.781478.6%11 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick76cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8990…38adbacked Yes33c35.82$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.891540%6 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc96c…b868backed No34c33.54$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.429137.8%110 W · 181 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84b1…9645backed No68c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97dc…f612backed Yes64c29.91$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.622085%17 W · 3 L+5.4wins+0.27per pick58cpaid+48.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xe11d…44ecbacked No42c29.71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4818041.7%75 W · 105 L-0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37d3…4e40backed No61c28.51$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.295058%29 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39c3…e155backed No76c28.11$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3625447.6%121 W · 133 L-18.8wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-14.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No77c28$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.564,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47e6…c039backed No77c27.91$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3718242.3%77 W · 105 L-19.1wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-30.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcb6b…c7f7backed No77c27.78$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3813943.9%61 W · 78 L-12.6wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-25.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No71c27.32$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.393,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdfb…f641backed No73c26.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.79164.8%59 W · 32 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick71cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a2f…a13cbacked No69c25.74$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.765981.4%48 W · 11 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick73cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed No58c24.77$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3732652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed No67c24.18$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.235843.9%157 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58a4…7456backed No75c20.6$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.523022.6%52 W · 178 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xab27…ab66backed Yes65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd138…aac0backed No75c19.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.919221.7%20 W · 72 L-8.1wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-38.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3ca8…fc6abacked No68c19.85$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No71c19.66$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.941,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…ca53backed No67c19.39$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.894963.3%31 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa336…43f1backed Yes67c18.64$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0615047.3%71 W · 79 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8031…c84cbacked Yes67c16.07$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6c8…d7c5backed No71c15.14$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7524149.8%120 W · 121 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.