Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2829ac7a21f2066e35a2b038a04e45c89ca733a373b929240d661f417bcb1adc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $124,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $127,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 0c | 73,550$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.47 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2762…7fc6backed No | 1c | 2,825$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 5c | 1,222$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.02 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 993.06$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.09 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 33c | 739.71$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.1 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 27c | 684.51$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.03 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 67c | 507.41$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.85 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 26c | 417.02$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.58 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 385.72$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.57 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 54c | 311.15$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.42 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 78c | 306.53$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.04 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 22c | 296.5$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.48 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 67c | 289.97$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.63 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 23c | 278.74$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.69 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed Yes | 79c | 268.18$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.46 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 24c | 253.05$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.98 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 248.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.22 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 42c | 247.66$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.04 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked No | 33c | 242.18$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 59c | 213.15$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.46 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked Yes | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 15c | 198.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.35 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 18c | 185.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.22 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 30c | 182.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 162.19$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 157.09$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.65 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 14c | 155.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.16 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 45c | 154.26$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.06 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 151.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.85 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 30c | 147.93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.99 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…996bbacked Yes | 67c | 144.33$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.63 | 65 | 78.5%51 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 66c | 121.11$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.97 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1116backed No | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d21…07cfbacked No | 11c | 105$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 79c | 89.17$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.07 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 22c | 80.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked No | 36c | 75.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…c539backed No | 72c | 73.7$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.71 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddc…a869backed No | 67c | 73.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 22c | 72.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.97 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 51c | 72.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 54c | 65.42$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 61c | 62.91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa742…5bd4backed No | 76c | 56.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ad…8d47backed Yes | 29c | 56.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 69c | 56.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a0…4a06backed No | 35c | 51.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 22c | 51.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 67c | 51.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 74c | 50.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ce…7648backed No | 71c | 47.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -34%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 25c | 43.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 38c | 43.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…e315backed No | 36c | 42.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 34c | 41.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 44c | 39.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes | 30c | 39.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 76c | 38.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 76c | 37.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc7de…c28ebacked No | 74c | 36.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 76cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8990…38adbacked Yes | 33c | 35.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 34c | 33.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b1…9645backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97dc…f612backed Yes | 64c | 29.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 42c | 29.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37d3…4e40backed No | 61c | 28.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 76c | 28.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 77c | 27.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed No | 77c | 27.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 27.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…f641backed No | 73c | 26.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2f…a13cbacked No | 69c | 25.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 59 | 81.4%48 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 58c | 24.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 67c | 24.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed No | 75c | 20.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab27…ab66backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd138…aac0backed No | 75c | 19.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 92 | 21.7%20 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca8…fc6abacked No | 68c | 19.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 71c | 19.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…ca53backed No | 67c | 19.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 67c | 18.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…c84cbacked Yes | 67c | 16.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 71c | 15.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.