Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebddeae336d2c892c6b5f751c2e246338c3f49b959201a0d9b2c61b22f658192
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,204
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,204 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 7c | 460$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 44c | 399.98$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.99 | 101 | 20.8%21 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 386.23$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.12 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 65c | 221.16$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.31 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 216.21$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked Yes | 42c | 206.69$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.28 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 62c | 199.37$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.57 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 39c | 178.86$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.15 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 166.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 56c | 164.45$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.16 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 137.27$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 34c | 130.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 21c | 124.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 115.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed No | 66c | 112.67$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 56c | 104.51$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.63 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 39c | 100.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 48c | 98.66$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 59c | 98.65$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 46c | 97.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 57c | 86.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 28c | 84.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 37c | 80.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 42c | 77.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 55c | 74.84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 46c | 62.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 66c | 58.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 45c | 50.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab8…0eebbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 49.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 49.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed Yes | 47c | 49.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 58c | 47.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 41c | 46.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 40c | 45.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 38c | 42.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 56c | 41.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 41c | 41.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 46c | 39.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 39c | 38.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed No | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 60c | 29.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 46c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 62c | 27.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 48c | 26.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 45c | 25.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1520…4218backed No | 62c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 56c | 22.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 63c | 21.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 69c | 19.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd9…ad53backed No | 74c | 19.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 66c | 19.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 56c | 19.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed No | 63c | 18.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…5bcbbacked No | 66c | 16.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 68c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.