Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25356c783901456f3864f84da260e85a2286776f2f063865c4f745e3d438f27c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 18c | 482.4$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.27 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 80c | 406.11$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.75 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 19c | 399.84$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.97 | 101 | 20.8%21 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 384.54$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe731…55b9backed Yes | 23c | 208.58$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 206.06$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.47 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 11c | 189.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 19c | 184.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 170.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 155.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 141.53$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 76c | 137.9$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 136.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8d…8973backed Yes | 28c | 131.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 126.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 18c | 111.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…24a5backed Yes | 18c | 108.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked Yes | 21c | 105.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 78c | 101.38$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 22c | 98.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 22c | 98.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69dd…0d41backed Yes | 28c | 95.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 15c | 68.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 19c | 54.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 79c | 52.95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed No | 78c | 52.28$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 47.48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 72c | 46.62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 79c | 44.89$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 30c | 43.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 32c | 42.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 73c | 41.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 29c | 40.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 29c | 33.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 32c | 33.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 31.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed No | 71c | 31.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 79c | 24.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 73c | 20.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…4613backed No | 79c | 18.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked No | 78c | 15.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6154…0404backed No | 80c | 14.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.02 | 35 | 80%28 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b37…f13abacked No | 71c | 14.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.