Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2834f9d8fb6b3b4ea518ebca77890709fd24b998ed573e0349d9826b8952d352
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,305
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,055
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,305 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 15c | 619.49$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.82 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked No | 77c | 511.81$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.59 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 8c | 466.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 9c | 337.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 31c | 300.89$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 10c | 266.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 235$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.76 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 6c | 234.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 7c | 228.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…b929backed Yes | 45c | 221.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 9c | 214$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 9c | 211.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 60c | 203.4$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 47c | 200$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.56 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 28c | 197.83$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed No | 74c | 170.39$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b6…4ad7backed Yes | 48c | 156.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 64c | 147.36$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 13c | 136.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 131$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 130.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 10c | 127.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 38c | 120$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.3 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 51c | 117.37$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.21 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 24c | 111.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 17c | 93.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 77c | 93.21$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 32c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 32c | 75.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 22c | 71.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x837c…d774backed Yes | 29c | 65.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 74c | 62.73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 65c | 62.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 49c | 42.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 72c | 39.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 35c | 31.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 41c | 29.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 43c | 26.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed No | 66c | 26.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 45c | 26.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f7…b1a8backed No | 52c | 23.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 22.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 69c | 15.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 75c | 15.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 80c | 12.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or below on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.