Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc28b5b6a3aedd55566c59691ed0ad482da47039fde4e7e883d347399ec7120f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 2c | 1,055$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 30c | 1,006$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.65 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 71c | 724.12$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.64 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 36c | 497.79$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.91 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 9c | 469$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 10c | 389.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 74c | 327.86$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.14 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 26c | 318.13$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.15 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 6c | 314.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 17c | 288.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 279.61$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.25 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 5c | 253.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 7c | 244.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 235$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 5c | 232.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 18c | 225.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 70c | 225.07$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.75 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 220$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 80c | 212.86$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 209.23$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…9145backed Yes | 10c | 208$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 85 | 9.4%8 W · 77 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 9c | 206.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 191.22$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.05 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…b301backed Yes | 39c | 177.69$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.97 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 72c | 159.99$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e3…6863backed Yes | 29c | 159.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed No | 67c | 151$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.83 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 78c | 147.5$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 140.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 74c | 139.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 38c | 132.38$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 131.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 128$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 14c | 125.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 69c | 122.37$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 29c | 113.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 61c | 112$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 36c | 105.93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 65c | 105.1$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 31c | 103.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 32c | 102$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 100.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 31c | 100.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 32c | 97.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 92.04$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca5a…1334backed Yes | 28c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 90$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 23c | 88.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 85.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 25c | 84.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 79.6$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x837c…d774backed Yes | 25c | 74.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 19c | 72.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 61c | 72.11$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 28c | 70.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 67.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…6400backed Yes | 30c | 67.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 70c | 65.17$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 60.53$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 66c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 67c | 58.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 28c | 56.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…9c87backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3a…08d7backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 38c | 48.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 77c | 45.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 39.35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 73c | 34.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x245d…4271backed Yes | 35c | 34.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 70c | 27.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 80c | 26.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…3f06backed No | 72c | 26.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 65c | 22.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 58c | 20.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05cc…1e1dbacked No | 74c | 20.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 74c | 20.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426b…6bb8backed No | 72c | 19.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 61c | 19.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…bf77backed No | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 72c | 17.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 75c | 13.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or below on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.