Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x202eca2cdb884634bfcb423ae95e3bd090205f52dac099edd995133387a5aa2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,275
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,275 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 1,247$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.26 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 32c | 1,036$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.32 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 15c | 752.24$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.48 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 684.45$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.05 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed Yes | 29c | 523.24$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.08 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 6c | 486.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 424.37$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.42 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 349.01$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.46 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 297.31$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 21c | 272.21$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 39c | 258.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 253.53$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.79 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 7c | 205.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 195$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 80c | 192.81$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.23 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 62c | 164.75$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 11c | 157.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 77c | 154.06$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e3…6863backed Yes | 23c | 152.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbea…d08cbacked Yes | 35c | 136.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 130$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd489…7f08backed No | 75c | 129.56$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 95 | 66.3%63 W · 32 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 125$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 73c | 109.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 23c | 108$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 66c | 105$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 28c | 100.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 22c | 99.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 72c | 97.96$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 96.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 37c | 94.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 93.6$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked No | 73c | 89.44$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 69c | 88.1$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 15c | 78.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 26c | 77.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 67c | 77.27$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 68c | 72.68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 61c | 72.65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 33c | 72.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 79c | 64.82$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 77c | 61.15$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 78c | 61.03$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb75f…f98bbacked No | 72c | 60.23$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 23c | 58.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 22c | 57.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 77c | 56.84$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 66c | 45.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 33c | 45.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…b301backed Yes | 30c | 45.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…68afbacked Yes | 24c | 43.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…9c87backed Yes | 28c | 42.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 71c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 66c | 41.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 75c | 40.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 74c | 37.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x271e…8eb9backed No | 75c | 36.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 77c | 34.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 76c | 32.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 72c | 31.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 66c | 28.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 75c | 26.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 20.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 17.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…ed80backed No | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 66c | 15.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 14.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or below on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.