Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ccf293cda6a734fa17e90096937c29bdd79559b8242bf4b9ff48c7c697d0bf5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 34c | 1,797$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,178.09 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 13c | 550.72$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.12 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 31c | 546$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.56 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 16c | 470.62$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.29 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 464.94$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.66 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 35c | 449.62$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.18 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 397.19$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.74 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 66c | 374.62$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.25 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 26c | 338.31$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.66 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 66c | 300$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 22c | 289.55$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.17 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked No | 47c | 270.65$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.24 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 237.1$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.39 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 235$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.6 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked No | 65c | 230$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.5 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 41c | 211.98$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.87 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 66c | 210.8$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.82 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 207.17$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 207.17$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.97 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 26c | 193.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.36 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 76c | 190.79$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.84 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 60c | 185$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.4 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 42c | 183.84$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.51 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 37c | 180.61$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.01 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 7c | 174.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 172.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.55 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 155.95$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 37c | 150.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.27 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca5a…1334backed Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 34c | 146.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.66 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…c0a7backed No | 65c | 135$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.75 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 132$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 131.94$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.06 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 63c | 127.64$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.28 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 28c | 124.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.63 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed Yes | 36c | 120.2$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.05 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 28c | 107.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.82 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 32c | 100.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.13 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 99.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.47 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 78c | 99.35$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.76 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 96.76$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.45 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 17c | 85.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.07 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 32c | 83.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 68c | 83$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 33c | 80.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 20c | 77.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.62 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 76.33$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.67 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 75.88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.78 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 65c | 75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…6400backed Yes | 34c | 74.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.23 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 63c | 73.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.29 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 31c | 72.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.03 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 74c | 71.55$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.22 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 40c | 70.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 73c | 69.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.86 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 73c | 68.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2179…d206backed No | 70c | 67.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.86 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked Yes | 37c | 64.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed Yes | 39c | 63.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 30c | 60.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.22 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 17c | 60.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked Yes | 31c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 33c | 59.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc697…412bbacked No | 65c | 55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 54.48$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 72c | 53.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 33c | 53.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.63 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 30c | 52.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 24c | 51.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 26c | 50.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x837c…d774backed Yes | 39c | 50.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 76c | 50.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 76c | 50.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…b301backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 39c | 49.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 47.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 46.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 69c | 45.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 33c | 45.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 78c | 41.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 75c | 40.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 74c | 37.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 58c | 34.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 30c | 34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…6c1ebacked No | 75c | 33.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 106 | 71.7%76 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 69c | 33.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 70c | 33.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 32.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 43c | 28.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or below on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.