Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Villanova Wildcats (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x284539e3abf58a24a756eaab521c9df8ff1fa0dcccee1a8583c2998cc18a6b1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Villanova Wildcatsof Villanova Wildcats, Marquette Golden Eagles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $225,116
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $225,700
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $225,116 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Marquette Golden Eagles | 48c | 221,831$106,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106,377.21 | 359 | 45.1%162 W · 197 L | -24.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Villanova Wildcats | 52c | 200,005$104,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96,000.05 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x006c…16eabacked Villanova Wildcats | 52c | 10,654$5,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,113.84 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Villanova Wildcats | 53c | 5,555$2,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,610.85 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Villanova Wildcats | 53c | 3,522$1,867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,655.33 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Villanova Wildcats | 54c | 1,100$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Marquette Golden Eagles | 46c | 615.04$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.92 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4366…c73ebacked Villanova Wildcats | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07bc…393abacked Villanova Wildcats | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Marquette Golden Eagles | 46c | 464.81$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.55 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Villanova Wildcats | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc82a…cc74backed Villanova Wildcats | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Marquette Golden Eagles | 48c | 258.64$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.88 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Marquette Golden Eagles | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x628e…1d80backed Villanova Wildcats | 54c | 170.31$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.34 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d56…0ba5backed Villanova Wildcats | 51c | 170$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…2a44backed Villanova Wildcats | 53c | 165.8$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.93 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…5590backed Villanova Wildcats | 53c | 88.8$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 158 | 44.3%70 W · 88 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Villanova Wildcats | 53c | 78.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf891…d3b6backed Villanova Wildcats | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Marquette Golden Eagles | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 536 | 35.6%191 W · 345 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…7db6backed Villanova Wildcats | 55c | 36.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbe…03c5backed Villanova Wildcats | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Villanova Wildcats (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Villanova Wildcats (-3.5)Marquette Golden Eagles won
- Spread: Villanova Wildcats (-4.5)Marquette Golden Eagles won
- Spread: Villanova Wildcats (-5.5)Marquette Golden Eagles won
- Villanova Wildcats vs. Marquette Golden EaglesVillanova Wildcats won
- Villanova Wildcats vs. Marquette Golden Eagles: O/U 144.5Over won
- Villanova Wildcats vs. Marquette Golden Eagles: O/U 146.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.