South American Leagues · resolved market
SE Palmeiras vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x284ccd530c78d1ba483b5ecdfd1006ce2c21f5dff14d500e479828d7f9ad40a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 37c | 2,326$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.19 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…bb24backed Over | 19c | 808.63$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.63 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 59c | 744.84$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.64 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 19c | 654.51$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.48 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Under | 18c | 651.45$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.46 | 196 | 30.6%60 W · 136 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e4…8b89backed Under | 9c | 635.18$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9c…8620backed Under | 18c | 540.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc7…43e5backed Over | 35c | 443$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.95 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67bf…f983backed Under | 19c | 355.55$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.51 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47d9…54b7backed Under | 17c | 176.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Under | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a48…dc30backed Under | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Over | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 77cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 19c | 77.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.92 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 20c | 69.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 134 | 57.5%77 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6796…3578backed Over | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 19c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 416 | 54.3%226 W · 190 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 56c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 79c | 41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf83…3385backed Under | 34c | 34.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Under | 60c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 47c | 21.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 69c | 15.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0179…adcdbacked Under | 76c | 15.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 71cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SE Palmeiras vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 4.5this page
- SE Palmeiras vs. CDP Junior FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)SE Palmeiras won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-2.5)SE Palmeiras won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.