College Football · resolved market
Spread: Oregon (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2855223565af37cf6e05dfbbe6ce2585a46da53d05e5fa388ae68deef083c11b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Indianaof Oregon, Indiana
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,483
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked Oregon | 51c | 17,167$8,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,723.99 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Indiana | 53c | 11,672$6,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,427.51 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Indiana | 49c | 5,488$2,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,814.55 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Indiana | 50c | 4,938$2,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,480.13 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…01aabacked Oregon | 47c | 2,874$1,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350.79 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Oregon | 46c | 2,262$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.56 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Oregon | 46c | 2,140$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.4 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Oregon | 46c | 1,980$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…8fb5backed Indiana | 53c | 1,944$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.52 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x637a…6d23backed Indiana | 53c | 1,890$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.3 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Indiana | 51c | 1,607$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.05 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Indiana | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Indiana | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Indiana | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 169 | 45.6%77 W · 92 L | +9.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked Indiana | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 64 | 65.6%42 W · 22 L | +14.8wins | +0.23per pick | 42cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Indiana | 49c | 898.95$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.91 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Indiana | 52c | 884.29$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.02 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Oregon | 49c | 705.72$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.58 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ef…f8c1backed Oregon | 51c | 627.45$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…b327backed Oregon | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedae…584fbacked Indiana | 49c | 600$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x281d…814fbacked Indiana | 49c | 550$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.5 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Indiana | 48c | 545$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.4 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Indiana | 52c | 542.74$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.48 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Oregon | 47c | 534.99$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.44 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…be9abacked Oregon | 49c | 435.29$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.29 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Oregon | 46c | 421$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.66 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Indiana | 51c | 369.35$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.98 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Oregon | 45c | 300.45$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.2 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Indiana | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +12.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Oregon | 47c | 250$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 109 | 44%48 W · 61 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Indiana | 55c | 236.36$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.36 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Oregon | 49c | 209$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.41 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Indiana | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Oregon | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Oregon | 46c | 173.4$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.54 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cb…ac5abacked Indiana | 53c | 172.22$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Indiana | 54c | 150$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Indiana | 50c | 138.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.97 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa492…a079backed Oregon | 49c | 102.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…73fdbacked Oregon | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ba…8497backed Oregon | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd1…009bbacked Oregon | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c1…416abacked Oregon | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeade…8632backed Oregon | 50c | 99.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1918…9568backed Indiana | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Oregon | 46c | 96.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Oregon | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47f1…876bbacked Oregon | 48c | 62.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…4ae8backed Indiana | 55c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Indiana | 52c | 52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Oregon | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4662…1d65backed Oregon | 50c | 40.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 52cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…8c92backed Oregon | 50c | 40.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -8.1wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Oregon | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 110 | 70%77 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked Oregon | 46c | 39.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Indiana | 50c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 276 | 48.9%135 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfca9…cb3dbacked Oregon | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -7.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…c04bbacked Oregon | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Indiana | 50c | 27.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Oregon (-7.5)this page
- Indiana vs. OregonIndiana won
- Indiana vs. Oregon: O/U 52.5Under won
- Indiana vs. Oregon: O/U 53.5Under won
- Indiana vs. Oregon: O/U 54.5Under won
- O/U 55.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.