Tennis · resolved market
Sinner vs. Struff: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x285d88f62f738b90dc2520f1656addb13c73bf90951aa25c4f0da88253d7991a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,590
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,590 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 25c | 1,882$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.96 | 4,082 | 39.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L | +93.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1dfdbacked Over | 72c | 1,705$1,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.4 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Over | 76c | 878.72$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.09 | 632 | 52.8%334 W · 298 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Under | 29c | 600$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 7,107 | 39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L | -17.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8a55backed Over | 76c | 524.47$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.87 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -9.5wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Under | 24c | 451.72$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.41 | 384 | 46.4%178 W · 206 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 24c | 407.81$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.36 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f39…f8f2backed Over | 76c | 380.39$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.39 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 43cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Over | 76c | 131.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 864 | 70%605 W · 259 L | +43.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Under | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,987 | 45.5%1,816 W · 2,171 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sinner vs. Struff: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5this page
- Jannik Sinner vs. Jan-Lennard Struff: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Jannik Sinner vs. Jan-Lennard Struff: Total Sets O/U 4.5Under 4.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Sinner vs StruffSinner won
- Set 2 Winner: Sinner vs StruffSinner won
- Set 3 Winner: Sinner vs StruffSinner won
- Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Struff (+1.5)Sinner won
- Set Handicap: Sinner (-2.5) vs Struff (+2.5)Sinner won
- Sinner vs. Struff: Match O/U 36.5Under won
- Wimbledon ATP: Completed Match: Jannik Sinner vs Jan-Lennard StruffYes won
- Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Jan-Lennard StruffJannik Sinner won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.