Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Swiss Stage Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28631ca8ed96ed9907d84069d3f51278e1ae43ace1b47ba8d02ff1b7d5a1a692
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shopify Rebellion Blackof M80, Shopify Rebellion Black
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,554
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,554 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked M80 | 1c | 3,115$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b37…1f70backed M80 | 19c | 1,708$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.5 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ae…f001backed M80 | 37c | 1,310$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.7 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 65c | 880.56$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311 | 702 | 51.3%360 W · 342 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…7a7bbacked M80 | 37c | 868$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef21…3dc9backed M80 | 34c | 800.15$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -8.0wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb9…cb5dbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 63c | 775.83$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.06 | 151 | 45%68 W · 83 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcddb…0d22backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 63c | 709.48$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.61 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked M80 | 39c | 633.73$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.33 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 61c | 630.16$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.06 | 867 | 47.5%412 W · 455 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 71c | 599.34$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.26 | 1,746 | 46.2%806 W · 940 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed M80 | 35c | 534.61$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.49 | 275 | 46.2%127 W · 148 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc352…a152backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 63c | 442.22$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.62 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9876…69f7backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 65c | 434$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.9 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 66c | 398.67$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.55 | 74 | 56.8%42 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 72c | 368.64$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.74 | 137 | 59.9%82 W · 55 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed M80 | 38c | 301.14$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.95 | 664 | 38.1%253 W · 411 L | -31.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked M80 | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 63c | 294.8$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.07 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6c…d38ebacked M80 | 34c | 289.27$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.22 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb126…9848backed M80 | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -4.3wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed M80 | 27c | 272.01$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.28 | 353 | 31.2%110 W · 243 L | -29.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 64c | 271.21$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.83 | 348 | 47.4%165 W · 183 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd31…8004backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 76c | 266.93$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.06 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed M80 | 29c | 248$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 175 | 37.7%66 W · 109 L | -14.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd74…76b9backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 72c | 219.19$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.57 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10fc…9f06backed M80 | 28c | 204.19$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x523e…3128backed M80 | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.57 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa11d…72a8backed M80 | 37c | 199.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 62c | 117$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.51 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked M80 | 33c | 115$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 210 | 48.1%101 W · 109 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed M80 | 32c | 101$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca5…7a68backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 64c | 100.85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5b…0324backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed M80 | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 257 | 45.9%118 W · 139 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 74c | 99.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 347 | 39.8%138 W · 209 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x490b…eec9backed M80 | 33c | 91.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…d7babacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 80c | 89.13$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 157 | 54.1%85 W · 72 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…3fd9backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c77…6747backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 71c | 66.69$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 636 | 52.7%335 W · 301 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 66c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b36…b82ebacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 76c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked M80 | 32c | 54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25f7…bafbbacked M80 | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fd…d3cfbacked M80 | 23c | 50.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed M80 | 40c | 47.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 291 | 51.5%150 W · 141 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked M80 | 38c | 44.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed M80 | 33c | 41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 305 | 44.3%135 W · 170 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3032…2c71backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 72c | 32.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5747…7fdfbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 628 | 56.4%354 W · 274 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 109 | 59.6%65 W · 44 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7125…a5aabacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 71c | 28.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77eb…7f9bbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 61c | 25.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 72c | 14.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 219 | 51.6%113 W · 106 L | -16.1wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Swiss Stage Group Stagethis page
- Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 2 WinnerShopify Rebellion Black won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.