TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Colton Smith vs Alvaro Guillen Meza

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Colton Smithof Colton Smith, Alvaro Guillen Meza
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$37,148
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$40,163

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,148 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1ef5…dc05backed Alvaro Guillen Meza49c9,994$4,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,909.654928.6%14 W · 35 L-8.9wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-34.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x9ac2…be3dbacked Alvaro Guillen Meza46c6,196$2,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,880.754949%24 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Colton Smith60c4,894$2,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,962.641,65849.9%828 W · 830 L+7.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6ec6…698bbacked Colton Smith31c2,384$739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,644.848473.8%62 W · 22 L+24.4wins+0.29per pick45cpaid+68.2%equal weight75+0.22 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Colton Smith57c1,997$1,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.478,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Colton Smith53c1,870$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871.481,42155%782 W · 639 L+23.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Colton Smith52c1,539$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.2263746%293 W · 344 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Colton Smith66c1,486$978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.495,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Colton Smith62c1,352$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.794,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Alvaro Guillen Meza22c1,295$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.794,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Colton Smith58c689.65$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.651,86545.6%851 W · 1,014 L+50.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Colton Smith58c689.65$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.651,86544.7%834 W · 1,031 L+36.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Alvaro Guillen Meza47c665.1$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.8125245.2%114 W · 138 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Colton Smith53c615$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.051,22841.1%505 W · 723 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Colton Smith58c502.27$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.079,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25d8…a71fbacked Colton Smith60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20030857.1%176 W · 132 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Colton Smith54c499.99$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23022449.6%111 W · 113 L+17.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+20.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x45d5…a7a0backed Alvaro Guillen Meza40c477.13$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.8554746.8%256 W · 291 L+0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe1e…7ee3backed Colton Smith62c412.08$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.593050%15 W · 15 L-4.0wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-22.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa39a…1246backed Colton Smith58c404.28$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.7611149.5%55 W · 56 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Colton Smith59c378$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.357,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed Colton Smith57c344.2$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.7797141.4%402 W · 569 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f2e…7c7bbacked Colton Smith53c309.27$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.361,06557.4%611 W · 454 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52f2…5a5dbacked Colton Smith62c299.96$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.858757.5%50 W · 37 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Alvaro Guillen Meza36c277.81$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.318,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Alvaro Guillen Meza31c262.8$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.52,08544.5%928 W · 1,157 L-51.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8642…47c8backed Colton Smith60c250$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10025250%126 W · 126 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Alvaro Guillen Meza35c238$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.883,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Colton Smith78c236$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.7535187.7%308 W · 43 L+66.4wins+0.19per pick69cpaid+29.6%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Colton Smith50c213.63$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.821,68150%841 W · 840 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc5f…cf7cbacked Colton Smith62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7616047.5%76 W · 84 L+8.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e34…4480backed Alvaro Guillen Meza38c200$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7730339.9%121 W · 182 L-10.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Colton Smith66c176.6$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.356,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed Colton Smith58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.4125257.9%146 W · 106 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3904…18dcbacked Alvaro Guillen Meza41c171.88$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05c5…8181backed Colton Smith59c169.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.5881256.2%456 W · 356 L-3.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbc08…6b85backed Colton Smith60c168.06$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.221,10352.9%583 W · 520 L+2.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf753…bcfebacked Alvaro Guillen Meza25c164.71$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4153736.9%198 W · 339 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Alvaro Guillen Meza41c164.58$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.482,17436.9%802 W · 1,372 L+39.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70f9…f25bbacked Colton Smith53c160$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.299056%554 W · 436 L+32.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe954…6134backed Colton Smith62c158.73$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.731566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Colton Smith58c151.17$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.0337230.4%113 W · 259 L-12.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-23.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Alvaro Guillen Meza28c129.66$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8229241.8%122 W · 170 L+0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Colton Smith59c122$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.0281047.9%388 W · 422 L+30.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x792d…7363backed Alvaro Guillen Meza39c119$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.63839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-18.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Alvaro Guillen Meza40c104.14$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.164,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ade…ed94backed Alvaro Guillen Meza39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391,45854%787 W · 671 L-33.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d18…6f62backed Colton Smith61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3956062.5%350 W · 210 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc74d…9690backed Colton Smith48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5229039.3%114 W · 176 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…2b70backed Colton Smith48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5239941.9%167 W · 232 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x90d4…2deebacked Colton Smith31c94.21$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Alvaro Guillen Meza37c86.48$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe28a…9317backed Colton Smith58c86.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.215261.5%32 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa55c…1066backed Alvaro Guillen Meza40c85.73$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2944349%217 W · 226 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f64…3633backed Colton Smith59c84.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.599249.4%490 W · 502 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe31d…e7a4backed Colton Smith60c83.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3312748.8%62 W · 65 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe36a…ae58backed Colton Smith53c76.39$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.99863.3%62 W · 36 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+23.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6081…f0f2backed Colton Smith47c69.64$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.911376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.22per pick55cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a72…0a38backed Colton Smith48c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.245235.8%162 W · 290 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c56…0615backed Colton Smith50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3059440.2%239 W · 355 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00d4…4c46backed Colton Smith48c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.248235.9%173 W · 309 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed Colton Smith48c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.269438%264 W · 430 L+21.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4c0…22ebbacked Alvaro Guillen Meza27c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3540527.2%110 W · 295 L-17.2wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee84…becbbacked Colton Smith62c59.25$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7123942.7%102 W · 137 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Alvaro Guillen Meza40c55.11$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.833,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Alvaro Guillen Meza37c54.47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.17,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0862…dc29backed Alvaro Guillen Meza38c51$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3851339.4%202 W · 311 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x389d…995fbacked Colton Smith57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.514452.8%76 W · 68 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c34…7a99backed Colton Smith60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208848.9%43 W · 45 L-5.9wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Colton Smith60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201,12551.1%575 W · 550 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e7a…2c0abacked Alvaro Guillen Meza39c49.4$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2715060%90 W · 60 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Colton Smith55c49.33$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225,41648.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L+14.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf970…f7f6backed Alvaro Guillen Meza42c47.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.032,48535.9%893 W · 1,592 L-28.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b3e…ae5bbacked Alvaro Guillen Meza43c46.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203435.3%12 W · 22 L-4.3wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-30.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaea5…69ddbacked Alvaro Guillen Meza40c44.63$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked Alvaro Guillen Meza29c42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1832935%115 W · 214 L-1.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-1.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x175e…8e46backed Colton Smith62c40.35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3510363.1%65 W · 38 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae45…96b9backed Colton Smith59c35.94$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7475262%466 W · 286 L+25.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Alvaro Guillen Meza43c33.07$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1783047%390 W · 440 L-16.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb455…a58abacked Alvaro Guillen Meza48c31.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6419…0f53backed Colton Smith58c30.01$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.523852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Colton Smith59c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.359253.5%317 W · 275 L+22.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x210e…3f9dbacked Colton Smith53c28.3$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.31145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49c8…3c52backed Alvaro Guillen Meza38c28.05$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6620234.2%69 W · 133 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Colton Smith62c26.44$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.052,56163%1,613 W · 948 L-10.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe10f…e8bbbacked Colton Smith61c24.59$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5918572.4%134 W · 51 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Colton Smith58c24$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.081,25044.7%559 W · 691 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1abb…9d8fbacked Colton Smith42c23.81$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.81560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ef1…5acabacked Colton Smith58c23.06$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.571,79460.2%1,080 W · 714 L+6.8wins0.00per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed Colton Smith59c22.88$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.387139.4%28 W · 43 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Colton Smith59c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.242353.7%227 W · 196 L-1.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe53…2dbabacked Colton Smith68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.488273.5%648 W · 234 L+19.8wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.