NFL · resolved market
Bills vs. Dolphins: O/U 49.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x289c4de2a2d451ed161073d106a1c7cf97d4951ebbdf80693a2815ebe9566731
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 53c | 9,351$4,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,956.03 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 47c | 9,000$4,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,770 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 47c | 2,139$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,133.67 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 48c | 1,268$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.47 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 1,161$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.69 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Over | 53c | 600$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 48c | 447.59$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.16 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Over | 53c | 376.26$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Under | 50c | 199.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.35 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 47c | 168.34$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.51 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 53c | 145$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.85 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 48c | 91.02$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 47c | 88.02$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.65 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…efd5backed Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 47c | 59.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Under | 47c | 57.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 130 | 65.4%85 W · 45 L | +17.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…9055backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Under | 47c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bills vs. Dolphins: O/U 49.5this page
- 1H Spread: Bills (-4.5)Dolphins won
- 1H Spread: Bills (-6.5)Dolphins won
- Bills vs. DolphinsDolphins won
- Bills vs. Dolphins: 1H MoneylineDolphins won
- Bills vs. Dolphins: O/U 50.5Under won
- Dolphins Team Total: O/U 20.5Over won
- Spread: Bills (-8.5)Dolphins won
- Spread: Bills (-9.5)Dolphins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.