NFL · resolved market
Spread: Bills (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73a178001417241a7edfdc4b2540320c18936c39a8a38aeed136da727e17cd25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dolphinsof Bills, Dolphins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Dolphins | 52c | 38,648$20,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,551.22 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…6371backed Bills | 48c | 36,458$17,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,500 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -8.5wins | -0.29per pick | 50cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Dolphins | 51c | 9,731$4,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,768.31 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Dolphins | 53c | 8,261$4,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,882.67 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bills | 47c | 7,232$3,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,393.4 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bills | 49c | 6,115$2,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,996.31 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Bills | 49c | 5,763$2,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,848 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Dolphins | 50c | 5,543$2,772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,771.55 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Bills | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Dolphins | 50c | 4,618$2,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,309.02 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ae…7b92backed Dolphins | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,880 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bills | 48c | 3,260$1,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,572.83 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…9ed3backed Bills | 47c | 3,191$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…d494backed Bills | 47c | 2,169$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.62 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Bills | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Bills | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Dolphins | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Dolphins | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Bills | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb21c…3aedbacked Bills | 46c | 888$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.48 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Dolphins | 54c | 742$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.32 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Bills | 46c | 742$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.32 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Dolphins | 48c | 696.64$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.25 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5384…9d80backed Bills | 48c | 618.75$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9844…5e6cbacked Bills | 49c | 600$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f5b6backed Dolphins | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.56 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…3d3ebacked Bills | 51c | 512.02$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Bills | 51c | 511.76$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Bills | 50c | 467$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.5 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Dolphins | 52c | 378.52$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.69 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Dolphins | 51c | 353$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.97 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Bills | 47c | 301.78$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.16 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x045d…d649backed Bills | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 95 | 36.8%35 W · 60 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Bills | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -12.9wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed Bills | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x089d…c7c9backed Bills | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Bills | 47c | 207$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.29 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x953d…c08fbacked Bills | 52c | 201.92$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Dolphins | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Dolphins | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…c0d4backed Bills | 48c | 188.17$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.32 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaabc…a190backed Dolphins | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…efd5backed Bills | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x646c…3210backed Bills | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bills | 48c | 96.83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Dolphins | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Bills | 49c | 63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa3…b798backed Bills | 50c | 59.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bills | 47c | 56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4efb…76a0backed Dolphins | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Bills | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Dolphins | 50c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Bills | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc64…6632backed Dolphins | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7d…c01abacked Bills | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Bills | 50c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c44…e936backed Bills | 51c | 31.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -5.7wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4977…8fd6backed Dolphins | 49c | 29.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…6914backed Bills | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Bills | 51c | 27.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…09e2backed Bills | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bills (-8.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Bills (-4.5)Dolphins won
- 1H Spread: Bills (-6.5)Dolphins won
- Bills vs. DolphinsDolphins won
- Bills vs. Dolphins: 1H MoneylineDolphins won
- Bills vs. Dolphins: O/U 49.5Under won
- Bills vs. Dolphins: O/U 50.5Under won
- Dolphins Team Total: O/U 20.5Over won
- Spread: Bills (-9.5)Dolphins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.