NFL · resolved market
Spread: Bills (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6708863a16f8d77479b3a71c15851b2ed6ffdfa455574dc368c4661c5d31fba1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dolphinsof Bills, Dolphins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $114,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $115,136
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Dolphins | 53c | 28,140$14,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,177.4 | 111 | 68.5%76 W · 35 L | +18.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Bills | 48c | 25,000$12,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,000 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Bills | 47c | 24,659$11,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,543.37 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Dolphins | 51c | 16,000$8,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,839.96 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Dolphins | 52c | 12,900$6,708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,192 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Bills | 49c | 10,881$5,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,322.04 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Bills | 48c | 10,195$4,893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,893.41 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Dolphins | 53c | 10,084$5,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,739.57 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Dolphins | 51c | 10,060$5,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,929.99 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bills | 45c | 8,909$4,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,009.05 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Bills | 49c | 6,360$3,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,111.26 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Dolphins | 54c | 4,742$2,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,184.86 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Bills | 49c | 3,372$1,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,652.28 | 208 | 51%106 W · 102 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Dolphins | 53c | 3,311$1,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,556.31 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bc…9dc9backed Bills | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Dolphins | 52c | 2,025$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.18 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Bills | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Dolphins | 52c | 1,993$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$966.54 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bills | 46c | 1,921$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.1 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3a…9ec0backed Dolphins | 56c | 1,786$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.71 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Bills | 45c | 1,411$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.95 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb00…42e9backed Bills | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Dolphins | 52c | 962$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.76 | 140 | 35%49 W · 91 L | -12.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Bills | 17c | 910$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.7 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Bills | 45c | 660.84$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.38 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Dolphins | 52c | 638.48$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.13 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Dolphins | 52c | 620.73$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.99 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…b567backed Bills | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 120 | 39.2%47 W · 73 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Dolphins | 56c | 558.25$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.63 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Bills | 49c | 508$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.92 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Dolphins | 52c | 394.01$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.09 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Dolphins | 55c | 291$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.95 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Dolphins | 52c | 224.65$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.83 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bills | 47c | 220.51$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.46 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0891…508abacked Bills | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Bills | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Dolphins | 54c | 189$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.94 | 223 | 49.8%111 W · 112 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaabc…a190backed Dolphins | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Dolphins | 55c | 185$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.25 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Dolphins | 52c | 172.67$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.88 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2750…81e5backed Dolphins | 58c | 168.97$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.97 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Bills | 42c | 158.97$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.77 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Dolphins | 53c | 141.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b79…3c8cbacked Bills | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…b2dbbacked Dolphins | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x670d…0825backed Bills | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Bills | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 194 | 36.6%71 W · 123 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad5c…ac13backed Bills | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4f21…fa6dbacked Bills | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…39fdbacked Bills | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Bills | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Dolphins | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…3779backed Dolphins | 52c | 59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Bills | 48c | 56.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Dolphins | 53c | 56.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d08…7b68backed Bills | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Bills | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc840…f00cbacked Bills | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Bills | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 126 | 63.5%80 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Bills | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Bills | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d65…3a17backed Bills | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9038…f74cbacked Bills | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…18cebacked Bills | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x022a…df5ebacked Dolphins | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 188 | 43.1%81 W · 107 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…5e8dbacked Dolphins | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Dolphins | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2f…966ebacked Bills | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Dolphins | 51c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8699…dcb5backed Bills | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bills (-9.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Bills (-4.5)Dolphins won
- 1H Spread: Bills (-6.5)Dolphins won
- Bills vs. DolphinsDolphins won
- Bills vs. Dolphins: 1H MoneylineDolphins won
- Bills vs. Dolphins: O/U 49.5Under won
- Bills vs. Dolphins: O/U 50.5Under won
- Dolphins Team Total: O/U 20.5Over won
- Spread: Bills (-8.5)Dolphins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.