NFL · resolved market
Bills vs. Dolphins: O/U 50.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cf0a145629c81f6db53e508cfbdeea74bdbcfec48013e5f09fc8420741c53e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,405
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,405 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 49c | 9,000$4,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,410 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 6,741$3,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,303.4 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 52c | 3,603$1,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,735.6 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 49c | 2,649$1,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,298.31 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…5019backed Over | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Under | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.04 | 140 | 35%49 W · 91 L | -12.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 51c | 1,796$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.08 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Under | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 167 | 37.7%63 W · 104 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 51c | 784.31$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.31 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 48c | 744.84$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.76 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…b567backed Under | 53c | 677.56$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.42 | 120 | 39.2%47 W · 73 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 48c | 510.33$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.43 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 48c | 500$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 47c | 472$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.78 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9f…77cebacked Under | 53c | 358.49$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090b…a51bbacked Over | 48c | 357$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Under | 53c | 334$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.56 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2791…2791backed Over | 47c | 299.96$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.98 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +36%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…5e8dbacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 54c | 199.82$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.48 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 52c | 195$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…85dabacked Under | 55c | 182.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9efd…1880backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d80…07d4backed Under | 52c | 95.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e92…cd3dbacked Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 49c | 47.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Over | 47c | 41.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…b17ebacked Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c44…e936backed Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -5.7wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0e…fc8cbacked Over | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4747…a71ebacked Under | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e72…cb2cbacked Under | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…5346backed Over | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 48c | 23.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bills vs. Dolphins: O/U 50.5this page
- 1H Spread: Bills (-4.5)Dolphins won
- 1H Spread: Bills (-6.5)Dolphins won
- Bills vs. DolphinsDolphins won
- Bills vs. Dolphins: 1H MoneylineDolphins won
- Bills vs. Dolphins: O/U 49.5Under won
- Dolphins Team Total: O/U 20.5Over won
- Spread: Bills (-8.5)Dolphins won
- Spread: Bills (-9.5)Dolphins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.