NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Pistons: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28a1adba96dce1f33c92db7177254bc97ae4eb93e2c4e9ff95fe2f674e83943d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,585
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0500…6158backed Over | 49c | 1,224$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.49 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Under | 53c | 815$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.72 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 49c | 612$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.12 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 599.28$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.89 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 49c | 380$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.8 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf247…e269backed Over | 51c | 211.78$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.78 | 247 | 31.2%77 W · 170 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked Under | 53c | 106$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 49c | 71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Under | 53c | 68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2af2…9aa5backed Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…cc70backed Under | 53c | 51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…6d41backed Over | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1b…854dbacked Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…d253backed Over | 47c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ee…5d12backed Over | 47c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51bd…bc56backed Over | 47c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 47c | 21.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawks vs. Pistons: O/U 233.5this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Pistons won
- Hawks vs. PistonsPistons won
- Hawks vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Hawks vs. Pistons: O/U 231.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Pistons: O/U 232.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Pistons: O/U 234.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Pistons: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-6.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-7.5)Pistons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.