NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Pistons: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd5b0e27f9ea3b9e05d6a729ffcdc09c3d1b1308ab85ae12f30c8a948e2958b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,626
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,244
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,626 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1033…d851backed Over | 69c | 2,899$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.59 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 1,593$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.39 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 39c | 1,500$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Over | 54c | 1,215$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.73 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Under | 12c | 900$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 46c | 640$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.4 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb07…0769backed Under | 11c | 441.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 40c | 400$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Under | 46c | 391.3$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6579…b0a5backed Over | 54c | 334.37$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.81 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 42c | 215.72$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.8 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…964dbacked Under | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Under | 47c | 180.26$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.72 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…c366backed Over | 55c | 83.64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9f…c2a6backed Over | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…ff1fbacked Over | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 43c | 43.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x186b…1148backed Over | 70c | 43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 53c | 41.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 339 | 49.9%169 W · 170 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -9.4wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 539 | 51.6%278 W · 261 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…b4a3backed Under | 48c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 336 | 50.6%170 W · 166 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawks vs. Pistons: O/U 231.5this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Pistons won
- Hawks vs. PistonsPistons won
- Hawks vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Hawks vs. Pistons: O/U 232.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Pistons: O/U 233.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Pistons: O/U 234.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Pistons: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-6.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-7.5)Pistons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.