NBA · resolved market

Spread: Pistons (-7.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64ccaf84b45c1220d13105a39098486308e5d6811e52dfb07bac3ce5ea7378c8

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Pistonsof Pistons, Hawks
Resolved: Dec 12, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $72,110
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $70,787

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,110 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x84db…aeebbacked Hawks	52c	19,895$10,345 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,345.31	1,374	50.1%689 W · 685 L	+34.9wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Pistons	48c	16,419$7,881 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,537.99	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54fd…ae61backed Pistons	50c	11,982$6,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,981.88	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Pistons	47c	10,000$4,700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,300	1,556	52.8%822 W · 734 L	+40.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Hawks	53c	9,500$5,035 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,035	477	48.8%233 W · 244 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Pistons	48c	5,000$2,400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,599.99	453	48.1%218 W · 235 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6b4…a278backed Hawks	52c	4,167$2,167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,166.67	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Pistons	47c	3,421$1,614 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,806.69	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf800…f62dbacked Hawks	52c	3,115$1,620 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,620	83	47%39 W · 44 L	-6.8wins	-0.08per pick	55cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x25f4…20e0backed Hawks	53c	2,832$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	152	44.1%67 W · 85 L	-14.4wins	-0.09per pick	54cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Hawks	55c	2,545$1,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,400	489	57.5%281 W · 208 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Pistons	48c	2,250$1,080 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,169.97	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7634…1b96backed Hawks	51c	2,025$1,033 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,033	240	51.3%123 W · 117 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Hawks	53c	2,000$1,060 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,060	220	53.6%118 W · 102 L	+5.6wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Pistons	47c	1,702$800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$902.13	164	42.1%69 W · 95 L	-7.6wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Hawks	54c	1,500$810 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$810	456	47.1%215 W · 241 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Hawks	3c	1,489$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.29	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc87b…51d4backed Hawks	52c	1,154$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	210	55.2%116 W · 94 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Pistons	47c	1,006$473 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$532.96	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Pistons	48c	1,000$480 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$520	267	55.8%149 W · 118 L	+12.9wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x62d8…4867backed Pistons	50c	953.93$475 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$479.1	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x911d…2438backed Hawks	52c	940.38$489 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$489	66	54.5%36 W · 30 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x443d…017fbacked Hawks	52c	807.69$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420	235	50.2%118 W · 117 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Pistons	46c	600$276 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$324	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7591…9829backed Hawks	52c	576.63$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.85	45	44.4%20 W · 25 L	-3.1wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-20%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa35b…0eccbacked Hawks	52c	480.77$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	245	56.3%138 W · 107 L	+10.5wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Pistons	47c	438.46$204 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$234	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked Hawks	52c	384.62$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	185	56.8%105 W · 80 L	-6.0wins	-0.03per pick	60cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Pistons	47c	378$178 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200.34	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5f27…6ea7backed Hawks	51c	370$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.7	141	45.4%64 W · 77 L	-4.6wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cf2…06c2backed Hawks	52c	275$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143	150	51.3%77 W · 73 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Hawks	53c	260.03$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.82	851	47.5%404 W · 447 L	-7.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2719…b81dbacked Hawks	52c	242.31$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Hawks	7c	231$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.17	526	43%226 W · 300 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf531…b062backed Hawks	51c	206$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.06	548	38%208 W · 340 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked Hawks	51c	206$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.06	368	54.1%199 W · 169 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Hawks	55c	200$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	324	50%162 W · 162 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2bd5…26ccbacked Hawks	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	516	51%263 W · 253 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Hawks	54c	200$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	478	56.5%270 W · 208 L	-8.9wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1351…bebcbacked Hawks	52c	200$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	165	52.7%87 W · 78 L	+8.8wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+13%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x17e7…85a1backed Hawks	55c	200$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	195	56.9%111 W · 84 L	+20.0wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8b20…7c67backed Hawks	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	195	52.8%103 W · 92 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2de8…1121backed Hawks	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	909	57.6%524 W · 385 L	-1.9wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeb51…733cbacked Hawks	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	115	42.6%49 W · 66 L	-3.4wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2c7…2e93backed Hawks	52c	153.85$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	211	52.6%111 W · 100 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Pistons	47c	148.94$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.94	660	46.8%309 W · 351 L	-16.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x59eb…fa33backed Hawks	54c	126.83$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.49	99	41.4%41 W · 58 L	-7.4wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x64c6…244cbacked Hawks	55c	111.44$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.29	94	45.7%43 W · 51 L	-11.3wins	-0.12per pick	58cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Pistons	60c	100$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	1,053	53.5%563 W · 490 L	-15.4wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	+2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb116…940abacked Hawks	45c	100$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	126	55.6%70 W · 56 L	-8.1wins	-0.06per pick	62cpaid	-12%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2816…6ad7backed Hawks	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	107	51.4%55 W · 52 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd619…fcf3backed Hawks	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	124	54%67 W · 57 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc880…a622backed Hawks	54c	96$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.84	74	41.9%31 W · 43 L	-4.5wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Hawks	53c	94.34$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1,661	50.3%836 W · 825 L	-14.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90cb…ae5fbacked Pistons	50c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x27b1…ed2bbacked Hawks	52c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	73	49.3%36 W · 37 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce49…4740backed Hawks	54c	46.3$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	236	42.4%100 W · 136 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Pistons	46c	46.3$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd8f…a3dcbacked Hawks	54c	42.7$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	59	49.2%29 W · 30 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5748…7b81backed Hawks	52c	42.31$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	147	51%75 W · 72 L	-6.2wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcba…d962backed Pistons	48c	41.67$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.67	85	43.5%37 W · 48 L	-7.9wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x045c…5861backed Hawks	55c	41.09$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.6	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb052…7adabacked Pistons	49c	40.82$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.82	290	46.9%136 W · 154 L	-9.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Hawks	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	448	21.4%96 W · 352 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdc7…31c0backed Hawks	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	87	46%40 W · 47 L	-5.7wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8677…4d2cbacked Hawks	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	156	43.6%68 W · 88 L	-8.0wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ae3…3b2dbacked Hawks	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83d3…a973backed Hawks	54c	37.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	102	61.8%63 W · 39 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	62cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f02…c594backed Hawks	55c	36.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	40	50%20 W · 20 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Pistons	45c	30$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.5	539	51.6%278 W · 261 L	+20.3wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x708a…aadabacked Hawks	52c	28.85$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	53	52.8%28 W · 25 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7590…d6e0backed Hawks	52c	28.85$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	41	58.5%24 W · 17 L	+2.9wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb990…3d1cbacked Pistons	46c	26$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.04	24	50%12 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked Hawks	54c	25.93$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	599	48.4%290 W · 309 L	-8.2wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Hawks	51c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Hawks	50c	19.96$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	938	49.7%466 W · 472 L	+36.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Pistons (-7.5)this page
1H Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Pistons won
Hawks vs. PistonsPistons won
Hawks vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylinePistons won
Hawks vs. Pistons: O/U 231.5Over won
Hawks vs. Pistons: O/U 232.5Over won
Hawks vs. Pistons: O/U 233.5Over won
Hawks vs. Pistons: O/U 234.5Over won
Hawks vs. Pistons: O/U 235.5Over won
Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Pistons won
Spread: Pistons (-6.5)Pistons won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Pistons (-7.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event