TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Falconsof Team Falcons, Aurora
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$847,274
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$902,585

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $847,274 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 438 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked Team Falcons61c347,841$210,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136,843.2128748.8%140 W · 147 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Aurora41c215,565$88,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88,0001,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Aurora49c41,500$20,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,255.5180256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Aurora37c34,932$13,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,051.822,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed Aurora40c23,389$9,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,257.122644.7%101 W · 125 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed Aurora38c18,263$6,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,939.2243344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Aurora26c16,000$4,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,236.3611953.8%64 W · 55 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Team Falcons64c15,960$10,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,821.71,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Team Falcons60c15,145$9,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,130.1727153.5%145 W · 126 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Aurora40c15,000$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00042650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked Aurora43c12,071$5,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,236.655244.2%23 W · 29 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed Aurora42c11,802$4,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,942.4741056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed Team Falcons59c11,477$6,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,706.2124153.1%128 W · 113 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Aurora34c10,650$3,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,649.492347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Team Falcons52c10,298$5,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,988.4369644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Aurora42c10,261$4,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,359.6296557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc04e…75d9backed Aurora38c10,190$3,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,870.546139.3%24 W · 37 L-6.5wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-25.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Aurora43c10,090$4,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,350.9328159.8%168 W · 113 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Aurora48c10,025$4,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,802.4261456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed Aurora38c10,015$3,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,755.9629042.1%122 W · 168 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked Team Falcons52c9,620$5,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,617.63647.2%17 W · 19 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked Team Falcons51c9,500$4,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,61741944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf054…eae7backed Team Falcons66c8,119$5,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,744.1812557.6%72 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Aurora51c7,622$3,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,887.0733746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Team Falcons52c6,169$3,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,987.7789741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x53f2…5343backed Aurora39c5,365$2,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0901010%1 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.27per pick37cpaid-82%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed Aurora49c5,055$2,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,493.3631248.4%151 W · 161 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked Team Falcons51c4,831$2,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,382.0856542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Aurora2c4,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8040014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Team Falcons58c3,975$2,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,678.9649455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Aurora38c3,871$1,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,458.7571454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Team Falcons58c3,760$2,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,596.2735951.3%184 W · 175 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad4d…dd89backed Aurora36c3,693$1,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,315.687736.4%28 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd1b…e3b3backed Team Falcons54c3,692$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,692.139754.6%53 W · 44 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e62…f6ffbacked Aurora37c3,500$1,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,294.8810646.2%49 W · 57 L-0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed Aurora44c3,450$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,529.9953764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed Team Falcons64c3,420$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,219.533453%177 W · 157 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Team Falcons62c3,387$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,287.0641351.8%214 W · 199 L+1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Falcons55c3,367$1,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,515.261,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd6a…4119backed Aurora15c3,161$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4852157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+53.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Falcons57c3,133$1,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,336.121,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x47bd…bc9dbacked Aurora38c3,010$1,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,143.6741055.6%228 W · 182 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4574…273dbacked Aurora45c3,000$1,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,34012630.2%38 W · 88 L-13.5wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-31.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6ae1…1e7ebacked Team Falcons54c3,000$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,379.9932951.7%170 W · 159 L-0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x085e…9aeabacked Team Falcons56c2,983$1,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,312.439650%48 W · 48 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed Team Falcons62c2,801$1,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,064.3825248.8%123 W · 129 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0188…91babacked Aurora38c2,781$1,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,056.653951.3%20 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed Aurora38c2,688$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.8826550.6%134 W · 131 L+12.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5240…f84ebacked Aurora48c2,662$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2801566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82da…da33backed Aurora38c2,632$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010743%46 W · 61 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb69…cfd1backed Aurora48c2,504$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20030356.4%171 W · 132 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ff7…bf32backed Aurora48c2,491$1,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,207.0825359.3%150 W · 103 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb333…c7eebacked Aurora44c2,348$1,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,023.942560%15 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a01…c89ebacked Team Falcons66c2,252$1,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.6928251.8%146 W · 136 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe881…19abbacked Aurora3c2,102$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701153.5%4 W · 111 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-88.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb665…ed24backed Aurora49c2,061$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0008540%34 W · 51 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Team Falcons63c2,001$1,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.3729348.5%142 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf24…7d4abacked Team Falcons50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0005149%25 W · 26 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked Aurora49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98036547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c93…2079backed Team Falcons58c2,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.993562.9%22 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6373…a0b7backed Aurora3c1,984$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7114825%37 W · 111 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-2.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Aurora45c1,980$891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890.9836248.6%176 W · 186 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8857…4b5bbacked Aurora51c1,969$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Team Falcons62c1,902$1,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.2450850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf518…07bcbacked Team Falcons63c1,751$1,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.933050%15 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Aurora39c1,744$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.7269132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb55…51ddbacked Team Falcons66c1,725$1,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.3535960.4%217 W · 142 L-1.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2469…4812backed Aurora37c1,623$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6002733.3%9 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed Team Falcons53c1,570$831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.7357449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Team Falcons55c1,547$848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.3168649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94f4…77a2backed Aurora47c1,534$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.467850%39 W · 39 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfce5…94dabacked Aurora47c1,532$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.823043.3%13 W · 17 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-29.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc62d…74fcbacked Team Falcons66c1,515$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.155251.9%27 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Team Falcons50c1,455$734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.3525446.1%117 W · 137 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Team Falcons52c1,450$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69656852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Team Falcons76c1,444$1,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.5165647.3%310 W · 346 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Team Falcons57c1,381$794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.851,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed Team Falcons50c1,339$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.7330336.6%111 W · 192 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9524…58f0backed Aurora38c1,316$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11e7…f559backed Aurora43c1,309$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.434839.6%19 W · 29 L-6.5wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-31.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed Team Falcons66c1,303$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.9734468.9%237 W · 107 L+26.3wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked Team Falcons52c1,275$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.8739343.3%170 W · 223 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Aurora23c1,202$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.7256548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Aurora39c1,191$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.1722340.4%90 W · 133 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked Team Falcons50c1,164$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58237945.9%174 W · 205 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8df7…36c4backed Team Falcons55c1,111$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.942356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2345backed Team Falcons52c1,100$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.9925935.5%92 W · 167 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fbe…7d07backed Aurora36c1,097$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.3725444.5%113 W · 141 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb2…bd2dbacked Aurora47c1,068$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.6230054.7%164 W · 136 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Team Falcons50c1,066$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.0595342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora37c1,062$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.432,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7900…3393backed Aurora48c1,037$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4958457.1%48 W · 36 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Team Falcons64c1,025$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.9686659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc156…f76cbacked Team Falcons51c1,022$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.7816547.9%79 W · 86 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Team Falcons66c1,001$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.3177458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1cd2…f5c4backed Team Falcons66c1,000$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.717864.1%50 W · 28 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed Aurora42c1,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42050769.2%351 W · 156 L+33.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d42…cde0backed Aurora38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3805038%19 W · 31 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x790e…b82dbacked Aurora38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3802445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbff7…92fbbacked Team Falcons51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49027143.5%118 W · 153 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.