Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2918f7b6e880403dd29d038a226901c6ae950273a3f14516393797bf397f5e17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $97,602
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,602 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd60c…f46cbacked No | 0c | 51,900$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.46 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa423…4387backed No | 0c | 3,970$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 4c | 3,670$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.77 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 1c | 2,660$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 51c | 961.07$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.89 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 3c | 523.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc1…2ababacked Yes | 47c | 481.22$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.77 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 419.56$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.16 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 6c | 392.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed No | 26c | 379.82$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.72 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 80c | 366.98$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.88 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed Yes | 79c | 352.62$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.76 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 59c | 323.27$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.24 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f0…46bebacked Yes | 56c | 316.61$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.41 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 239.14$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.79 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa131…1074backed Yes | 65c | 226.7$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.73 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 33c | 210.36$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.43 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 39c | 172.13$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.19 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 163.54$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 162.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.16 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 37c | 150.34$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.15 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9547…1bf5backed Yes | 39c | 145.45$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.18 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 42c | 143.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.8 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 34c | 142.61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 59c | 133.86$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.91 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 51c | 133.57$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.86 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab08…8825backed No | 46c | 131.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fb…78d1backed No | 62c | 128.73$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.53 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 72cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 57c | 121.09$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 27c | 113.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e9…0beabacked Yes | 32c | 103.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.62 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…0b22backed Yes | 63c | 102.09$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…dff6backed Yes | 67c | 99.6$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked No | 68c | 94.66$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.37 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a1…6405backed Yes | 63c | 93.78$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc7…2e22backed Yes | 59c | 91.83$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 60c | 64.38$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 70c | 62.53$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…4478backed No | 47c | 61.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78fb…256cbacked No | 48c | 59.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a9…ad84backed No | 52c | 58.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…91cdbacked Yes | 69c | 56.26$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 51.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 60c | 51.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 34c | 49.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…c12dbacked Yes | 43c | 49.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a4…14abbacked Yes | 28c | 49.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed No | 61c | 48.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…6fe7backed Yes | 44c | 47.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe122…7612backed No | 65c | 47.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb869…a2acbacked No | 72c | 47.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 55c | 43.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 72c | 41.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…8975backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26bd…2c54backed Yes | 44c | 39.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 39.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x467a…e448backed Yes | 51c | 39.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…9211backed Yes | 80c | 36.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 43c | 35.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c7…3e1dbacked Yes | 79c | 34.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5947backed No | 53c | 33.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5f…c2ebbacked Yes | 57c | 33.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x309f…e7c8backed Yes | 70c | 33.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf15…a0b9backed No | 67c | 32.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e1…e24abacked Yes | 58c | 32.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…b823backed No | 47c | 31.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 40c | 31.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…0307backed No | 61c | 31.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa8…cd1ebacked Yes | 63c | 30.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 41c | 28.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…8d4fbacked No | 57c | 27.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 46c | 26.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae35…76dbbacked No | 59c | 26.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +6.1wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x27a1…adc6backed Yes | 53c | 24.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…0fa3backed Yes | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked No | 72c | 22.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 45c | 22.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…ea08backed Yes | 70c | 20.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671e…a831backed No | 72c | 20.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca5…9988backed No | 59c | 20.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4671…b5eebacked No | 67c | 19.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.