Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fa8cdd75b910f4a7eab5b0e077710a1ec2834fd263c8ea5a4e1e65e7eea4a98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,831
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,831 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked Yes | 0c | 6,474$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ae…28e0backed Yes | 1c | 5,072$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +205.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 42c | 574.01$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.06 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 544.49$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 3c | 404.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 36c | 387.33$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.98 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 8c | 366.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 16c | 346.92$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.07 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 12c | 312$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 68c | 295.26$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.54 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 262.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 24c | 245.07$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.02 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 36c | 233.38$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.56 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc1…2ababacked Yes | 45c | 228.62$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.09 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f0…46bebacked Yes | 40c | 225.67$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.68 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 39c | 209.06$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.71 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 35c | 199.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd30c…ada7backed No | 67c | 163.26$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 160.17$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 33c | 159.47$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f7…8bf1backed No | 59c | 159.25$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.7 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 149.17$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.97 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 55c | 133.71$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.23 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26bd…2c54backed Yes | 28c | 131.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe627…ac15backed No | 77c | 115.78$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a1…6405backed Yes | 29c | 114.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa131…1074backed Yes | 46c | 114.34$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x050a…9a4abacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b26…f009backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 37c | 99.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 41c | 97.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked No | 60c | 95.96$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.81 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…6030backed Yes | 30c | 94.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x671e…a831backed Yes | 27c | 92.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6b…c559backed Yes | 50c | 75.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 23c | 69.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8d…ab47backed No | 67c | 64.95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c5…74a6backed No | 69c | 63.2$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…b776backed No | 62c | 62.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xada4…91cebacked Yes | 34c | 62.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x014f…c73abacked No | 62c | 58.96$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6420…8741backed No | 68c | 58.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 76c | 57.55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…298bbacked No | 71c | 57.39$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 74cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…7648backed No | 71c | 56.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 27c | 49.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7453…aee6backed Yes | 37c | 46.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbffd…72cfbacked Yes | 25c | 45.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 64c | 45.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc7…2e22backed Yes | 40c | 41.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbe…4d88backed Yes | 41c | 40.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.18per pick | 34cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed Yes | 41c | 38.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 76c | 38.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…0b22backed Yes | 33c | 37.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 38c | 35.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed Yes | 41c | 35.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…0307backed No | 58c | 32.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 35c | 32.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 40c | 31.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 75c | 31.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd72f…68e5backed Yes | 36c | 31.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e9…0beabacked Yes | 33c | 30.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 30.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed No | 63c | 30.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe122…7612backed Yes | 50c | 30.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…9f2ebacked No | 66c | 29.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4f…ac4bbacked No | 56c | 25.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…7060backed Yes | 46c | 24.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 62c | 23.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 62c | 22.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78fb…256cbacked No | 63c | 20.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 55c | 20.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c04…3d8bbacked No | 55c | 18.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd95…e333backed No | 80c | 18.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.