Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-04-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x292f02acf7db7a8013d9ce75e80b4e9765de9f4b67d9c259dcafac0300ae933c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,879
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 20c | 5,708$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.95 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18c4…f6dcbacked No | 80c | 5,411$4,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,082.25 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe271…1570backed Yes | 21c | 3,286$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 18c | 2,198$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.58 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 78c | 1,743$1,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.21 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 12c | 1,626$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.45 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f9…0eaabacked Yes | 15c | 1,265$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.8 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -64%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d43…ae44backed Yes | 17c | 1,118$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 19c | 1,100$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8c…5e69backed Yes | 1c | 1,090$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f7…c4e4backed Yes | 19c | 526.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac99…306ebacked Yes | 7c | 512.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Yes | 20c | 488.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 19c | 480$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 17c | 307.42$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 131 | 29.8%39 W · 92 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 80c | 296.4$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.28 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Yes | 6c | 283.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed Yes | 17c | 279.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Yes | 19c | 212.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 12c | 205.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7577…8fb9backed Yes | 18c | 194.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes | 8c | 192.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1871…59e6backed Yes | 18c | 190.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed Yes | 8c | 188.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 79c | 180$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Yes | 19c | 171.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 77c | 150$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 23c | 143.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…2f38backed Yes | 18c | 132.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64b1…f556backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 17c | 111.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3177…cb28backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…656dbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfece…ef64backed Yes | 20c | 95.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb888…56d1backed Yes | 15c | 94.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 80c | 83.64$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…995ebacked Yes | 19c | 56.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 80c | 50.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 80c | 48.89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 80c | 27.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-04-19?this page
- Will SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw?No won
- Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.